Analysis Of The Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Population Agglomeration In Small Towns Of Shandong Province

At present,in the process of rapid urbanization in China,small towns,as the basic units of administrative management in China,are in the transitional zone between urban and rural areas,they have always played an important role in the process of transferring rural population and grassroots power of urbanization in the domain.The report of the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "it is necessary to enhance the industrial development,public services,employment and population agglomeration functions of small and medium-sized cities and small towns." The level of population agglomeration in small towns is obviously heterogeneous due to various factors,which not only exists in large geographical units,but also is deeply reflected in provincial and county boundaries.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the characteristics and influencing factors of population agglomeration in regional small towns in a targeted way to scientifically grasp the development status of regional small towns,rationally determine the development path of small towns and effectively formulate differentiated and classified development policies for small towns.Based on the data of "Statistical Yearbook of Constructed Towns in China" and "Statistical Yearbook of County Counties in China",this paper takes Shandong Province as the research object to analyze the current situation of population agglomeration in small towns in Shandong Province and the changes of population agglomeration in small towns in 2004 and 2015 from various angles.The main research includes three parts: index measurement,characteristic analysis and influencing factors.In the aspect of index measurement,the population agglomeration level of small towns in Shandong Province is measured from the three dimensions of scale effect,regional contribution and density.The current situation and changes of population agglomeration in small towns in Shandong Province are compared and analyzed from two angles: different types of small towns and different types of counties and cities,and its division is made.Types of population agglomeration development.In the aspect of characteristics analysis,firstly,by using the unbalanced index and index change degree,compared with other provinces,town population development and urban population development,it is found that the population agglomeration of small towns in Shandong Province presents the overall characteristics of small population scale,low agglomeration level and large regional difference.The population scale and urbanization level of towns increase substantially,and the population density of towns decreases.The contribution rate of population agglomeration in less developed and less urbanized small towns is higher Secondly,the regional differences of population agglomeration in small towns in Shandong Province are analyzed from three aspects: variation coefficient and Theil index decomposition.The results show that the population scale of small towns in Shandong Province increased steadily during 2004-2015,the urbanization level increased and tended to be balanced,the population density of small towns decreased and the differentiation and development of small towns in Shandong Province was serious.The main difference is within the region,and the development of small towns in eastern Shandong is the most unbalanced.Finally,using exploratory spatial data analysis,buffer zone analysis,standard deviation ellipse,regional center of gravity,population-land inconsistency index and other analysis methods,the spatial characteristics of population agglomeration in small towns of Shandong Province are analyzed from four aspects: spatial autocorrelation,spatial proximity,orientation and agglomeration center of gravity,population and spatial non-equilibrium.It is found that population agglomeration in small towns of Shandong Province presents.The core hotspots of population agglomeration are located in Zibo City and its surrounding areas in the central part of the province.The population agglomeration rate of small towns along the national highway is higher than that of other areas.The role of national highway in promoting population agglomeration of small towns is affected by regional distribution,the level of economic development of county and urban areas and the administrative level of small towns.Population agglomeration presents the main direction of southwest-northeast.The focus of population agglomeration moves westward.The distribution of population and land in small towns in Shandong Province is uneven,and the land polarization in northeastern China is serious.On this basis,based on multivariate linear regression model,from the natural resources,industrial economic factors,social service factor,system factor four aspects selected representative indicators,small towns in shandong province population agglomeration empirically the factors which influence,inspect all kinds of influence factors on different areas in shandong province and the effect of different types of small towns population change.The study finds that industrial economic factors and social service factors are important factors affecting the population agglomeration of small towns in Shandong Province.Among them,social employment capacity and non-agricultural industry development are the dominant factors affecting the population agglomeration of small towns.Social employment capacity and regional economic development level are the dominant factors affecting the population agglomeration of small towns.Finally,the conclusions of the study are summarized,and countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the population agglomeration development in small cities and towns are proposed.