Investment Portfolio Based Distributed Generation Capacity Allocation And Energy Allocation

The distributed generation of the renewable energy sources is developing rapidly in recent years because of advantages such as low pollution, high efficiency and saving power transmission investment. However, due to randomness, variability and intermittence, the renewable energy sources lead to the problems of high cost and difficulty in management. Along with the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, the allocation of distributed generation has important practical significance. In this paper, mainly considering the output uncertainties, and based on the ideas and methods of portfolio theory, we study the capacity allocation of multi energy virtual power plant and analyze the contract energy decomposition of wind power producer.Considering the capacity allocation problem, this paper uses the basic thoughts of portfolio theory, and presents an idea that mapping the output uncertainty of virtual power plant to the price uncertainty which is considered in most allocation models based on portfolio theory. Then the paper uses portfolio theory to express the output volatility and complementarity of renewable energy resources, and develops the model of multi energy virtual power plant capacity allocation. Based on this, the problem of profit volatility and risk management can be solved. On the basis of a single period capacity allocation model, other two models considering the punishment of output deviations and multi periods respectively are developed. Results show that the proposed model is effective to quantitatively analyze the allocation problem considering the complementary among multi renewable energy distributed generations, the electricity prices, the reserve price, and risk preference.Considering the wind power accommodation problem, this paper analyzes the trading patterns of foreign wind power market, and studies the wind power energy allocation problem in several markets under the price mechanism in similar of the Spanish government. Considering the uncertainty of wind power markets and output, this paper proposes the use of scenario method to process the power output uncertainty as well as portfolio theory to deal with the price uncertainty and establishes the wind power energy allocation model under different time scales multistage markets. Numerical examples analyze the influence of the premium price, multistage market correlation, wind power prediction error and other factors to the wind energy allocation and results show the effectiveness and practicality.