Modeling And Risk Evaluation Analysis Of Urban Rail Transit Train Operation Safety

Many large and medium-sized cities in our country are accelerating the construction of urban rail transit at present. Urban rail transit has become the inevitable development trend to solve the problem of urban traffic for its characteristics of large capacity, fast, comfortable, energy-saving, environmental friendly and so on. On the one hand, all over the country are vigorously constructing the urban rail transit and the passenger flow are increasing year by year, while accidents occourred frequently in urban rail transit on the other hand leading to serious casualties, property losses and bad social influence.Aiming to improve the safety of urban rail transit, this disseration carried out modeling and risk evaluation analysis of urban rail transit operation safety by applying the complex networks theory and quantitative risk evaluation method, to explore the effective risk response measures and reduce the risks of urban rail transit train operation safety. The main work of this disseration are as follows:Frist, on the basic of analysis of the accidents of domestic urban rail transit train operation safety, this disseration applied the to the urban rail transit safety research and accident analysis, and identified the risk factors or events on a perspective of human, devices, environment and management. Focused on the interconnected relationship between each risk factors or events, a network model of urban rail transit train operation safety based on interconnected risk factors or events are built, and effectively analyzed the key influential factors of urban rail transit train operation safety accidents by applying the complex networks theory, which can find the effective risk respones measures.Second, on the quantitative risk evaluation of urban rail transit train operation safety, this disseration proposed a new risk indicator on the basic of two conventional risk indicators, that is the coupling drgree to considering the interconnected relationship and coupling effect of each risk factors or events, thus improved the reliability of risk evaluation.Third, considering the inaccuracy and a high degree of uncertainty of the risk information and the limitations of traditional probability risk analysis methods, the fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA) is introduced to get the risk level and category of the risk factors or events. In addition, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy-AHP) is also applied to obtain the relative importance of each risk factors or events, to calculate the system risk level eventually.Finally, an in-deep case study was carried out to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model and method, and explored the effective measures of risk respond by utilizing the proposed network model of urban rail transit train operation safety based on the interconnected risk factors or events, to provide an example for urban rail transit risk analysis and management personnels, to improve their management of the urban rail transit train operation safety.