| The electric energy is one of the important energy of our country, and the positive development of the electricity industry is of great significance to promote the rapid growth of national economy and improve the people’s livelihood. At present, problems of power shortage and surplus exist everywhere, which indicates that there is in-coordination between electricity and economic in our country. To guarantee the coordinated development of electricity and economic appears to important, especially the boost of China western development strategy. So a new theory is needed to analyze the demand relation between electricity and economic comprehensively and to quantitative predict the future power consumption structure. This paper proposed a CGE model based on general equilibrium theory, which can better explain the complex relationship between electricity and economic from the inner connection of different department.Firstly, this paper compared CGE model and traditional prediction model and stated its advantage in the prediction of the electricity demand and built a dynamic CGE model including production and element module, main body and demand module, price module, balanced closing module and dynamic module in the case of Guizhou province, which has abundant resources, highly developed industry and weak foreign trade.Then, combined with Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) data of CGE model and economic structure of Guizhou province, this paper compiled macro and micro SAM table including10leading industrial department of Guizhou province and balance process its data. In consideration of nonlinear equations of CGE model, Newton Raphson iterative algorithm is used to solve it and a MATLAB program is prepared to achieve it in this paper.At last, on the basis of the built CGE model, this paper simulated the electricity demand structure change ad economic change of Guizhou province in the future10years. The simulation results shows that Guizhou province can maintain rapid economic development in the future10years and the annual growth of GDP is above10%. The ratio of tertiary industry is adjusted to8.13:41.06:50.81in2025from16.3:41.9:41.8in2007. In the meantime, the power consumption of Guizhou province maintain rapid growth in the future lOyears and the annual growth is above11%. The adjustment of power consumption of the tertiary industry co-respond to the economic structure, and the ratio of the power consumption of the secondary industry is basically stable. |
