Research On Jiangsu Province's Energy Policy Based On CGE Model

Energy is one of the important material basis for maintaining social and economic development of mankind,it is both necessary for the production of material security industry,but also the people's daily life important consumer material.Energy use and conservation related to China's economic and social development and stability,and is an essential element of national security.As an economically strong province of Jiangsu Province,the demand for energy to meet the rapid economic development is very large,and Jiangsu Province's own energy production is extremely scarce,and primary energy production is of very small amount.In recent years,the rapid growth in energy demand and the growing dependence on external energy in Jiangsu Province is to further exacerbate the shortage of energy supply and demand.Therefore,to ensure that Jiangsu Province's important issue in energy economy coordinated with development be solved,the status of energy consumption and energy policy in Jiangsu Province were analyzed and discussed.So first of all for the energy situation in Jiangsu Province,three aspects were analyzed as they are energy resources situation,energy production situation and energy consumption in Jiangsu Province,as a result,we summed up the main issues of energy supply and demand in Jiangsu Province:(1)the energy supply and demand gap is further expanded.Due to the demand for economy development,the lack of fossil energy and clean energy,the situation that Jiangsu province relies heavily on energy transferred from the outside will not change in the short term;(2)Though the coal production have decreased in recent years in Jiangsu Province,the coal consumption is still in a dominant position;(3)In the aspect of industry,the energy consumption still occupies a large proportion in the second industry,and the amount of energy used is highest in the second industry.It still need to further optimize the industrial structure level;(4)Jiangsu province has achieved initial success in the development of clean energy,and then we still need to increase development efforts in it;(5)Within the scope of nation the energy intensity in Jiangsu province has reached the leading ranks,but there is still more room for improvement in energy saving.To put the energy situation as a starting point,this paper collect and process the related data,and then through the preparation and balance,we established a Jiangsu Province Social Accounting Matrix in 2007(SAM).Then an energy Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model is constructed by using Jiangsu Province's SAM.The CGE model for energy in Jiangsu Province is used to make simulation of energy policy,and the simulation results are obtained and discussed.Then we make recommendations for the development of tax policy design energy policy and technological progress in Jiangsu province.In this paper,the energy tax and the promotion of technical progress are simulated in two scenarios.The simulations of energy tax policy is divided into two parts.One part designed a rate of 5%,10%,15%of the energy tax to simulate the macroeconomic impact under different energy tax levy.And in another part,we compared to the release ways from add the energy tax revenue into government's revenues and add the energy tax revenue into residents's income or corporates'income to reduce the welfare effects by energy taxation.The policy of promoting technical progress is simulated by improving the energy efficiency of the production sector 5%to observe the impact of macroeconomic energy consumption in Jiangsu province.The results of energy policy simulations show that:(1)The energy taxation has a significant energy saving effect,but simultaneously caused some negative effects in macroeconomic of Jiangsu Province;the return of energy tax income to the residents or companies can effectively reduce energy consuming and reduce the loss of social welfare.(2)Promoting technological advances by improving energy efficiency is not effective in reducing energy consumption in the short term.In the policy developing,the government still needs to consider the implementation of various policies such as the technological progress and energy tax policies flexibly combined to obtain better energy saving effect.