The Research Of Traffic Demand Predicting In Traffic Impact Analysis Based On TransCAD

With the continuous increasing intensity of the urban exploitation, transport problemshave been popular, which has become a key factor that influencing urban development. Theproblem how to maximum satisfies the traffic demand under the circumstance of current roadtransport and heavy land usage also has become a significant problem that arising urbantransport system attention. In order to coordinate the relationship between land usage andrelationship of transport system, and to evaluate the influence on the transport system after allkinds of urban construction project is accomplished, traffic impact evaluating mechanisms inmany cities of China have been used, which relieves the influence on traffic system. The paperaims to make a research on the traffic demands prediction which exists in the traffic impactevaluating for urban construction projects.The current traffic demand forecasting model is combined with the features of trafficimpact evaluation of urban construction project. Taking the features of traffic impact evaluationof Urumqi construction project as an example, the thesis studies the suitable model and methodsof the current traffic demand forecasting, which is on the basis of TransCAD, within the trafficimpact evaluation of urban construction project. The thesis takes the traffic impact evaluation ofUrumqi construction project as an example, contrasts the predicting outcomes between manualworks and TransCAD, and discusses the advantage and disadvantage of the traffic demandforecasting which is based on TransCAD.This paper aims to do the following researches which based on application of TransCADsoftware to traffic impact analysis for urban construction projects.(1)Using TransCAD software to making a division of the traffic zone based on theinfluence on the scope of project, and setting up the road network on the scope of project, and lastly storing and and managing the traffic fundamental dates from TransCAD.(2)This paper combines current traffic demand prediction models with all kinds of modelsin TransCAD software to illustrate the usage of "four phases method" prediction model principleand software operation process in traffic demand forecasting process for urban constructionproject traffic impact assessment, and demarcates corresponding parameters to realize theapplication of TransCAD to the traffic impact assessment for construction projects andcompletes the traffic demand forecasting work.(3) This paper takes Urumqi as an example to investigating the traffic demand predictionmethod by using TransCAD software, and makes a comparing between the prediction resultsand manual results, then to find out the reasonability’s of TransCAD software prediction, andlastly to decrease the errors of prediction in the process of manual evaluation.