The Analysis Of Social Stability Risk Of Hydro-Engineering Project

With the successive construction of hydropower projects, some projects exposed many problems in the construction process, such as mass petitions of migration, blocking workers and other large-scale mass incidents. Therefore, social stability risk analysis is necessary in the feasibility study phase of the project.Firstly, based on the literature review this paper gives a complete definition on the risk to social stability of hydropower project, and according to the theory of social risks, the mechanism of social stability risk of hydropower projects is briefly described. Secondly, the paper establishes a method of social stability risk analysis of hydropower project, which includes the pre-identification of risk factors, risk investigation, risk assessment, preventive and resolving measures and the risk assessment after measures. Thirdly, according to the characteristics of hydropower construction projects as well as literature, a more comprehensive risk assessment index system is established to analyze the social stability risk of hydropower projects. The index system includes a total of six types of risk, policy planning and approval process, land acquisition and resettlement, technical and economic, ecological environment, building operations and management, social environment and public opinion and 30 categories of risk factors. Fourthly, based on the risk matrix method and Delphi Technique-FAHP(fuzzy analytic hierarchy process) theory, a social stability risk assessment model is established. According to the survey results, we can select the possible risks and determine the probability and the degree of impact of risk, and then determine the risk level of single factor. Meanwhile according to Delphi Technique, the experts drawn two risk factors relative importance score, then we can use FAHP to determine the weight vector for each risk factor, and finally come to comprehensive evaluation value and risk level based on single factor risk levels and the weight vector. Finally, taking the Diverting the Water of Yellow River into Hebei Province Project for example, according to five steps, the pre-identification of risk factors, risk investigation, risk assessment, putting forward measures to prevent and resolve risks and risk assessment after measures, the social stability risk is analyzed. The result is that comprehensive evaluation value of this project’s social stability risk is 0.4159, the risk level is "Medium" and it needs to take measures to prevent and resolve. The article also makes a number of measures to prevent and resolve the risk for reference, and notes the main responsibility department and assisted department of each measure to facilitate the measures’implementation. After that, this paper assesses the risk after the measures are taken. The comprehensive evaluation of the risk is 0.2583 and the risk level is " Relatively Low". It shows the measures are basically effective and feasible.