The Evaluation On Ships’ Navigational Safety By Cloud Theory

The safety of ships’ navigation has been a core subject in marine accidents studies, because it is connected with ships and people’s safety and properties loss prevention closely. The size of states’ fleets has expanded rapidly and the quantities of ships and the density of sea traffic are increasing. The risk of collision is becoming more frequent. How to make an effective evaluation of navigation safety and to protect the safety of ships has became the focus of study in the maritime.Based on previous studies, this paper use a new method based on Cloud theory to evaluate the Ships’Navigation Safety. First, analyze the impact of various factors in navigation safety and select the indicators to build the evaluation system for ships’ navigation safety. Then, create a cloud generator and cloud inference rules to quantify the qualitative factors, build the prediction model. Choose the Longkou port to do the numerical example. Finally, comparative the results of the evaluation to verify the accuracy of the prediction model.The factors affect the safety of navigation are unquantifiable and uncertain, which makes the decisions of ships’avoidance complex and changeable and difficult to choose the reasonable and valid indicators in the decision problems. The method of cloud model can overcome the qualitative factors and quantitative factors. Thus, this method makes the decision more perfect and scientific, improve the safety of ships’ navigation in oceans.