Study On Risk And Safety Evaluation Method Of Earth-Rock Dam

In earth dam risk analysis and evaluation is a difficult and challenging the focus of research. Previous statistics data show that the circumstances of earth-rockfill dam, the seepage and slope is the main risk factors for earth and rockfill dam damage. So this article analysis the three main earth-rock dam risk types: circumstances, seepage failure risk and slope instability, and on this basis, the earth and rockfill dam project as a whole, considering all the risk factors, comprehensive evaluation of the risk. In this paper, the main research contents are as follows:(1) Based on fault tree analysis, fault tree, the root cause of the construction of earth and rockfill dam risk analysis of the possible causes of the risk. Based on rough sets theory, and combined with fault tree analysis results, try to in rough sets theory is used for risk causes mining, on the basis of analyzing the causes of earth and rockfill dam risk.(2) The circumstances dam risk quantitative evaluation method is proposed, on the basis of circumstances probability is obtained, combined with risk assignment function, converting circumstances probability risk of circumstances, and considering the dam downstream loss of life loss, economic loss and social environment, calculate the dam flood risk loss degree; Finally build the circumstances of risk quantitative evaluation level, provide the basis for risk assessment of circumstances.(3) Combined with Geo- Studio software Seep/w in the seepage analysis, the dam seepage analysis, analysis of three kinds of condition of dam seepage, namely, check the water level, normal storage level and dead water level conditions, obtained three kinds of working conditions of seepage flow per unit width, the escape escape gradient and seepage elevation, and simulated under different working conditions of saturation line.(4) Using cloud model is put forward and the performance of two dimensional evaluation model of comprehensive evaluation of slope stability. Combined with hierarchy analysis and projection pursuit method, can put forward at the same time take into consideration the level of the subjective and objective weights- coupled entropy weighting analysis method; Based on cloud theory, realized the qualitative quantitative uncertainty transformation based on cloud model, can reflect such as randomness and fuzziness in the process of evaluation uncertainty problems. Assisted by fuzzy entropy E as the contestant, jointly build the grade evaluation of slope stability of two-dimensional evaluation model.(5) On the basis of the analysis of the whole earth and rockfill dam risk system, and from the perspective of risk assessment, considering the engineering quality, operation management, flood control safety, structural safety, seepage safety, earthquake and related factors of metal structure, constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system of earth and rockfill dam risk; Established the index system of qualitative and quantitative indexes of quantitative standard; The integrated use of analytic hierarchy process(ahp) and fuzzy analysis theory, is proposed based on analytic hierarchy process(ahp) of earth and rockfill dam risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.