Study On Post-assessment Theory And Method For Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecasting

With the rapid development of China’s continuous, steady economic growth, the city is also expanding the scale. With the increasing demand for people to travel, urban rail transit as a large capacity, convenient and comfortable Good transport, has become the focus of metropolitan transportation planning and development. In China, the current urban rail transit entered the period of rapid development, the city has opened a lot of urban rail transit. However, according to the feedback after many urban rail transit operators point of view, presents many new problems, passenger flow as an important part of rail development and research. The study found that, the planning period, work flow of passenger flow and comparison of actual operation, there is a certain degree of deviation. Passenger flow forecasting as an important reference for design and construction of urban rail transit, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of the forecasting of passenger flow.In this paper, assessment of urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting is still in the preliminary stage of exploration, passenger flow forecasting is a collection of processes, methods, models, data, parameter calibration as one of the overall project, any part of deviation will affect traffic forecasts and due to an increase in the deviation of the link without amplification segment forecast results. Therefore, this article in the entire passenger flow forecasting based on the premise conditions, focusing on the evaluation of result of passenger flow prediction.From the passenger flow itself, analyzes the main factor influencing the urban rail transit passenger flow, from the basic data, the method of passenger flow, passenger flow forecasting model and parameters, the prediction results of different aspects of analysis of the important factors influencing the passenger flow forecasting of the city urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting. And on this basis, providing the concept and purpose of the assessment of the passenger flow forecast, and content of passenger flow forecasting evaluation. After the establishment of evaluation index system of passenger flow forecasting, according to the principle of evaluation index selection as well as mainly factors influencing the urban rail transit passenger flow to selection suitable passenger flow forecasting assessment indicators and parameters, and to establish the model of total passenger flow forecasting assessment.Taking Xi’an metro line two as an example of empirical analysis. Combining with the basis of data, processes, methods to predict and forecast of line two passenger flow forecasting, focusing on comparison the index of line two early prediction of passenger flow and the actual operator passenger flow, and analyze their differences. According to Xi’an metro line two passenger flow forecasting assessment, then propose recommendations of increasing the prediction do passenger flow forecasting.