Research On Inventory Control Of Spare Parts Of Shanghai Subway Based On Demand Forecast

Shanghai railway transportation, also called Shanghai metro, comes the third city metro system put into use in mainland China. The continuous development and expansion of Shanghai have put forward higher requirement on the spare parts management of city metro system. While, among the spare parts used in the whole operation of metro lines, key spare parts are not only more expensive in ordering and managing, but also have a great impact on train operation. Thus, higher standard should be needed in the management mode of key spare parts. After careful investigation and study, some managing problems are found in Shanghai Metro Logistics Centre, which is responsible for metro spare parts management. This paper has completed some discussion, calculation and analysis of the issues mainly about demand forecasting and inventory control strategy in the wheel management of Shanghai Metro Line 10.The existing problem of Shanghai subway wheels management is firstly discussed in the thesis, the life status of wheels is analyzed and the purpose and method of life assessment are discussed. According to the reliability theory, the life distribution of wheels was calculated, based on the analysis of demand forecast. Besides, the demand forecast method is compared based on life assessment with the Bayes method. The example is analyzed through Java, and the internal existing forecast result is optimized. In inventory control strategy, this thesis proposed regular check strategy including reorder point in combination with demand forecast result, solved the mathematical model using Genetic Algorithm in MATLAB, and simulated real inventory control process through Java in the end to achieve the optimization of total inventory cost under existing strategy. The empirical result shows that this proposed method got good outcomes in forecast result and inventory optimization, and also provides a reference for the demand forecast and inventory control optimization of other key spare parts in the meantime.