Research And Realization Of The Effectiveness Evaluation Method Of Submarine Combat System Task Oriented

With the development of global information, the economic development of all countries was focused to the ocean. The submarine as an important part in the system of naval operations, will undertake more important missions. As an important system to complete a variety of typical combat missions, the submarine combat system became an important factor affecting the submarine combat effectiveness. Therefore, the further study of new type combat effectiveness of submarine combat system is necessary. Now there were many researches surrounding the effectiveness evaluation method, most of which from three aspects: 1)whether the index selection can reflects system features; 2)whether the relative importance of the indicators for the system is reasonable; 3) whether the selected effectiveness evaluation method can get the overall of system performance. According to the operational tempo, offensive and defensive posture conversion, reaction time, quantity of data and other characteristics of modern submarines, the new type of submarine combat system is a more dynamic and complex system that consists of multi-index and multi-decision-maker features in the operational environment. In terms of the limited ability to calculate dynamic system performance accurately and timely, the mainstream weighting method and effectiveness evaluation methods were unable to meet the needs of submarine combat mission at present.With respect to the importance evaluation of index in dynamic system, this paper analyzed several mainstream weighting method algorithm, including the improved entropy method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process algorithm and cloud model, and also pointed out that the above methods seldom considered the situation that the credibility and index weight changed over the evaluation objects. On this basis, the paper advanced a kind of weighting model based on the confidence of the adjustable parameters of S type curve. In view of the expert scoring method, the paper improved the credibility of expert evaluation and determined the degree of confidence by introducing expert authority and differential coefficient and increased the flexibility of empowerment model by using adjustable parameters calibration weighting model, which made it solve the non-linear relation between the evaluators and the dynamic index weight in the system better. Then paper explained the method by the graphical and experimental results showed that the calculation results of the method was closer to the importance of indicators in a changing battlefield environment.With regard to the effectiveness evaluation problem of dynamic system, this paper considered gray theory as the research direction which can deal with monitoring data that is non-deterministic and incomplete provided by limited time and space, and analyzed the limitations of conventional gray clustering evaluation model in comprehensive evaluation problems. On this basis, this paper proposed a comprehensive gray clustering evaluation model based on improved whitenization function. Through the analysis of the analytic properties of the Logistic function, this paper built a new whitenization weight function and effectively resolved the zero weight problems of the conventional grey clustering model by establishing the corresponding relationship between the sample value and the level, and converting qualitative relationship between evaluation object and evaluation index into growth characteristics of quantitative analysis curve. By way of evaluating the eutrophication of taihu, the feasibility of improving albino function was verified. To further highlight the advantage of comprehensive gray clustering evaluation model in dealing with small sample data, this paper selected the current mainstream effectiveness evaluation method based on rough entropy as a comparison and analyzed actual combat efficiency data of submarine combat system in the typical combat mission combination. The experimental results indicated that the proposed model algorithm was reliable and practical in dynamic and complex system effectiveness evaluation.Finally, based on the presented index weighting method and the system effectiveness evaluation algorithm, the paper designed and implemented the task-oriented submarine combat effectiveness evaluation system. The system was applied to build the static and dynamic index system and analyze submarine combat effectiveness changed over the battlefield environment. Experimental results showed that grey comprehensive clustering evaluation model could describe submarine combat effectiveness comprehensively and accurately, which provided a new effective way for weapons and equipment system efficiency analysis.