Research On Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei Province Based On System Dynamics

Resources are the foundation of economic development; the environment is the protection of human survival; the two can also be the constraints of economic and social development. With more and more population and big economic scale, resources and the environment is unable to bear the enormous pressure of human being, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is increasing. Because of their unique status and rapid economic development, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province have gathered a large population in the region, which also has brought great pressure to the region’s water resources and water environment. In view of this problem, the use of system dynamics method to study the water resources carrying capacity of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, has certain theoretical and practical significance. The main research contents and contributions of this paper are shown in three aspects:(1) Defined the "Beijing Tianjin Hebei region water resources carrying capacity" system. “Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei region water resources carrying capacity” system is a complex system refers to the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, by the combination of population, economy, water resources and other elements. The system consists of population subsystem, economic subsystem, water resource subsystem and water environment subsystem. The four subsystems are connected and interacting with each other.(2) The system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province was constructed. Information feedback theory was used to analyze the causal relationship of each element in the system. Vensim PLE software was used to build the "Beijing Tianjin Hebei region water resources carrying capacity", using 2005-2014 basic data to test the model, proved the validity of the model.(3) Using the scenario analysis method, the water resources carrying capacity of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region of 2014-2030 was calculated and analyzed, and the corresponding policy recommendations were put forward. The results show that the situation of comprehensive can be more objectively reflect the situation of water resources utilization in the future. By 2030, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei area total population was 137.72 million people, with a GDP of 193253 billion yuan, the total water consumption reached 25.665 billion cubic meters, sewage treatment rate reached 95%, industrial wastewater treatment rate reached 97%, industrial water recycling rate reached 92%. In the annual supply of South-to-North water diversion per year, there are still 4.275 billion cubic meters of water gap in 2030.Therefore, in resource type water shortage like Beijing, Tianjin Hebei region, to improve water resources carrying capacity, we the need to control the use of water resources and to improve efficiency, focusing on the development and protection of water resources.