Comprehensive Analysis Of Risk For Railway Dangerous Goods Transportation

With the rapid development of China chemicals, petroleum and other industries, people give more consideration to transport risk of dangerous goods. In the whole process of dangerous goods railway transportation, most of the volume of business mainly occur in railway hub or special lines.It is particularly important to establish a safe and strict management system since the high risk of dangerous goods transportation. At present,safety management model that Dangerous Chemical Articles Railway Transportation Station (DCARTS) in China applied is mainly based on experience, In that case, related railway departments should develop a scientific,effective and comprehensive analysis method.The paper first analyses the important factors that affect the risk of dangerous goods railway transportation, and then through the research on system engineering and other relevant knowledge,establish a comprehensive, specific and objective evaluation index system. Secondly, the paper also describes the relevant theories of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and gray correlation. Thirdly, for the original data processing, the paper presents a model that separates qualitative analysis from quantitative analysis. Meantime, it calculates each index weight by means of improved analytic hierarchy process, and compares the calculation method for membership function, Finally, it selects the circular distributional membership function which is more reasonable and objective, and then improves the inadequacies of existing calculation methods. Due to the intensive amount of calculation for AHP, the paper has applied the arithmetic functions of Excel, making calculation process easy.This paper takes a fourth-class railway station of dangerous goods transportation that is affiliated with Shenyang Railway Bureau, along with its petroleum-transit line as an example, and makes a comprehensive analysis of various influential factors in the course of transit. Meantime, the paper focuses on the analysis of the entire transportation process, and indicates that operating personnel will be the potential risks. The paper has applied the mathematical model to calculate the evaluation results,obtained its risk level with fuzzy characteristic quantity of risk level,analyzed the results by means of gray correlation method, and then make the best of them. The results indicate that the mathematical model is accord with the actual transportation process. Finally, the paper proposed the reasonable proposals for reducing the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation, which could provide some reference for the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation.