Railway Train Operation Safety Management Research Based On System Dynamics

In recent years, with the strong support of government departments, China’s railway transportation industry has developed rapidly. Various aspects put forward higher requirements on safety management of railway transportation. Railway traffic works as a basic part of the railway transportation system, which itself is a complex system. The system is affected by the railway departments, the type of work,people,machine,environment and other various factors,and all factors are interconnected closely.At present, the safety management investment decision-making is less researched in railway traffic safety analysis, and the utilized analysis methods are mostly macroscopical and qualitative. The system dynamics use the system of scientific theory that the system must have a structure which determines the function of the system, it works on the basis of feedback control and takes the approach of computer simulation, generating rewarding results in researches on topics such as complex social systems. So this paper applies the SD theory to the safety management of railway traffic work, aims to find the hidden potential links between the various factors of risks, assists in the actual safety management.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:1. The domestic and foreign research status of traffic safety are summarized, as well as the development of SD in various fields, and the concept, function and characteristics of SD are described and analyzed.2. Combined with the systematic theory, the railway traffic operation system is divided into three subsystems according to the procedure -receiving and dispatching, shunting and transporting, and the causality influence of safety factors of each subsystem is analyzed.3. From the viewpoint of each subsystem, the corresponding causality diagram and flow diagram model are constructed using the SD method, then the railway traffic work SD model is built, and research on the railway traffic safety index prediction and simulation is conducted.4. It carries on empirical research through the Vensim_PLE software, analyses the comparison of different programs of safety management input.The results in this paper have an important practical significance to our country for improving the effectiveness and practicability of the railway safety management and operation. It also provides a reference to safety investment decision-making for the railway management department.