| In recent years, with the development of Chinese rail passenger services and the increase of customers’demand for higher cost-effective products, the research of life cycle cost of Chinese rail passenger cars has been paid more and more attention by the train manufactures and operators. The development of a reasonable cost model is an important work for the study of product’s life cycle cost and almost all other related work is performed based on it. Therefore, we take the operation-oriented life cycle cost of rail passenger cars as the research object and study how to construct a reasonable calculation and estimation model of it. The main work of this paper is as follows:(1) Researched and analyzed the existing operation and maintenance characteristics of Chinese rail passenger cars, and the decomposition of rail passenger cars’ life cycle cost has been done based on it, which provides a prerequisite for the construction of LCC calculation model.(2) Analyzed the current situation of the calculation of Chinese rail passenger cars’ operation and maintenance cost and ABC is proposed to build the calculation model. As lacking reasonable and clear method for the division of activity centers, a proper method is proposed to improve the traditional ABC. The calculation model of rail passenger cars’life cycle cost is constructed base on the improved ABC.(3) The estimation of existing rail passenger cars’life cycle cost is studied and Grey Model is proposed to build the estimation model. The traditional Grey Model is improved to adapt Chinese rail passenger cars’cyclical cost time series and the existing rail passenger cars’life cycle cost estimation model is built based on it.(4) The estimation of new rail passenger cars’life cycle cost is studied and PCA and LSSVR are proposed to be used for it. The traditional PCA has been improved to extract new cost parameters based on fragment cost information. PSO-LSSVR is used to build the LCC estimation model based on characteristic parameters. |
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