Xi’an Passenger Flow Diversion Model Between Regular Public Transit And Rail Transit

With the rapid development of economy，Urban traffic is facing severe test andchallenge.Constructing mass rapid transit has already become an important measurement todevelop public transportation system with complete function. To grasp the principle of thetransformation of passengers from bus to rail transit after the building of rail transit，this papertries to establish the model of passengers transformation and discusses this issue based on theXi’an subway.This paper starts from the characteristics of public traffic system， analysis thecharacteristics of public traffic mode split and Data collection method，based on Status oftraffic mode split，analysis differences of every methods，choose a high operability，data moreaccurate Logit Model，applies to the survey which is about the travelling desire of Xi’anPassengers in2009，build Passenger Flow Diversion Logit Model，through using the elasticityanalyze based on disaggregate logit model, this paper analyzes the sensibility of travel timeand travel fees on the subway passengers transformation， this paper tries to anticipate theinfluence principle of the rail price to the the passengers transformation and also analyzes thecompetitive point between bus and rail transit and raises the idea of transportation policybased on elasiticity analyze.Research result reflects that the trip cost, distance and time take the important part in theissue which influences passengers transformation to subway; this paper constructs thepassengers transformation model based on MNL, The application of model reflects thesensibility of subway passengers transformation of travel fees is bigger than sensibility oftravel time. Based on elasticity analyze of price, the price of Xi’an subway is3.5~7, it is morebigger of lower than3.5or higher than7.7yuan is the highest Ticket fare of the currentticketing system.