The Comprehensive Risk Evaluation Study Of Ecological Culture Of Pu’er "Tea Horse Road"

"The ancient tea-horse road" was borned in tea-horse trade and rised in Tang and Song, flourished in Ming and Qing. There are a large number of natural landscape and ethnic cultural relics with the geographical environment changes arising. However, The ancient tea-horse road now face the natural and cultural risks:earthquakes, soil erosion, pests and diseases, reducing the tea garden area, road density and so on, so that cause the The ancient tea-horse road suffer serious losses. Pu’er "ancient tea-horse road" as the research object, combining risk assessment theory and Tea-Horse Road historical and cultural background, discusses the method of The ancient tea-horse road culture comprehensive ecological risk assessment model building. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) The spatial distribution of Comprehensive risk probabilities. Select affect ancient tea-horse road risk natural risk source:altitude, earthquakes, droughts, floods, soil erosion, pests and diseases, landslide and debris flow; and Humanities risk Source:arable land growth rate, reducing tea garden area, non-material cultural heritage, intangible heritage and cultural, road density, the town area ratio, fertilizer use, and reduction of forest land as the main source of risk, comprehensive risk analysis by calculating a probability of the region, draw a comprehensive risk probability in the region high in the middle, something low overall pattern.(2) the spatial region ecological damage value differentiation:The landscape dominance index, landscape structure index, landscape fragmentation index, landscape separation index, landscape vulnerability index and the index of the six losses landscape landscape indices to measure. Result in a high degree of loss mainly in Simao district Midwest region, eastern and Lancang River City in the southern region, mainly in the area of low loss Jinggu central, and parts of East King Zhenyuan most areas.(3) the risk of ecological and cultural value of space differentiation:by fitting an integrated ecological risk probability and loss worth of high-risk area is located in Simao Ning’er area, low-risk area is located in Menglian, Lancang River City, Zhenyuan, Jinggu the use of geographical weighted regression models were added risk sources on different locations mainly by the results of the analysis; areas:the scope of the intangible heritage of the biggest factors that primarily affects the central and southern most region; other risks affecting the scope of the earthquake is located in the west and north,area of influence factor less than 10%, in the entire region are distributed.Pu’er ancient tea-horse road on the study of ecological culture comprehensive risk analysis based on both natural and cultural factors, using a combination of regional ecological risk assessment models and geographically weighted models, so that the results fit with the current situation there is a higher degree, in the method on improving existing evaluation of ecological risk, and to provide evidence and guidance for the future, "The ancient tea-horse road" protection, the development of relevant laws.