Research Influence Factor Of Ice And The Forecasting Of Break-up Time In Wanjiazhai Reservoir

Wanjiazhai Water is located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, water supply, power generation, flood control, flood the important role of water conservancy. But because of Wanjiazhai Reservoir area narrow bending, section width of river, river bed slope and the special terrain conditions, in the annual into critical period of winter freezed River, easy to form ice damming and ice flood disaster. So based on the analysis of river ice evolution and river ice type, and further explained the characteristics of Wanjiazhai Reservoir tail of ice jam and ice dam phenomenon, formation conditions and changing process. Especially Wanjiazhai Reservoir tail ice condition changes in the main influencing factors were analyzed and studied in detail.According to the field observation data analysis of the history of the Wanjiazhai Reservoir tail ice characteristics. The ice is mainly determined by it’s special geographical location, meteorological and hydrological conditions and channel characteristics, and subject to the influence of human activities, based on mathematical statistics method to analyze the thermodynamic factors, hydraulic factors and channel morphology on the ice conditions of date influence, which lays a foundation for the further ice situation forecast model. In the system once day method theoretical model based on the improved. The correlation coefficient of calibration, that is more suitable for of Wanjiazhai Reservoir tail break-up date forecast mathematical model, and makes discussion on the accuracy of the prediction model and the validation results is also very good.Finally, the paper summarizes the main contents of this paper and the results achieved, and the existing problems are discussed and the problems to be further studied are discussed in the paper.