Research On The Poisson Point Process Model Of Transmission System And Its Reliability

Stochastic point process is a special class of stochastic processes. It is used to describe the highly localized random events in the objective world, i.e., these events only occur in time or space in a very small range. Therefore, we can abstract them into idealized points. Its models and theories come from a variety of human production, life and technological practice activities. Reliability theory is also an important part of the theory and application of stochastic point process. Therefore, stochastic point process is an effective method to solve the problems of reliability in engineering. It has very important research significance and research value.The new generation of intelligent substation is a major technological innovation in technology research, application promotion and demonstration operation of China State Grid Corp since 2012. One of its key technologies is the application of the isolation circuit breaker. The main research content of this paper is to compare and analyze the substation bus reliability and the outgoing line interval reliability with the new isolated circuit breaker and the traditional equipment (circuit breaker and isolating switch) in operation process, which has very important significance for engineering optimization and social benefits.In this paper, we first discuss the basic theory of Poisson point process and the establishment of Poisson point process model, the model test and the parameter estimation methods. We discuss the parameters estimation methods based on different data types, especially the Bayesian estimation for censored data in fixed time interval. Then, according to the actual situation, we summarize the outgoing line interval, the main variable interval, the single bus and the single parent segment, these four types of the transmission systems. We use the circuit breaker series current transformer to simulate the new isolated circuit breaker. Then, we establish the Poisson point process model of the four kinds of systems and the Poisson marked point process model of the bus and the outgoing line outage time by the superposition, sparse and composite theory. We derive the calculation formula of their mathematical expectation and it is used as a quantitative index to evaluate and compare the reliability of transmission system with the new and traditional equipment. Finally, we collect and sort out the censored data in a fixed time interval of the equipment, then get the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model. We decompose the outage time of the system into the outage time of equipment to calculate the results of the reliability model. We draw the conclusion through the comparison of the results and provide a reference for the reliability evaluation of transmission system.