Response Research On Runoff Sensitivity And River Ecological Flow In Beibu Gulf Economic Zone In Guangxi

Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is the coastal important strategic area in the wet zone in southwest China. Cmpared to the large amount of water per capita in North China, Beibu Gulf Economic Zone rains, humid climate. Its leaping economic development has caused tremendous pressure on the utilization of water resources, and put forward higher requirements to the water environment and water ecology protection.This article describes the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi natural geography, climate, weather, river systems and the current distribution of regional population, socio-economic, development and utilization of water resources, analyzed the water problems after the study area to speed up the water comsumption in the future. This study may comprehensive analysis these problems with human activities and climate change. Currently, the global climate compared to the last century is undergoing dramatic changes, rising temperatures accelerated and the precipitation will occur significant changes, which will interfere with future river runoff in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.In order to scientifically forecast the river runoff condition in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, SWAT module combines runoff sensitivity coefficient calculation module and river ecological water demand calculation module, constructed Mechanism Oriented Runoff Sensitivity and Ecological Flow Response Model and in dealing with non-closed basin boundary, input meteorological and consumptive water input data three aspects of the improvements. This model simulation results verify the accuracy of the results, indicating that the model in the study area has good applicability. The article decomposes the climate change into two response factors as precipitation and temperature. Human activity is divided into consumptive water response factor. The study set up 25 kinds of scenarios of climate change scenarios might occur in the future and four kinds of human activity scenarios. Then, it uses Mechanism Oriented Runoff Sensitivity and Ecological Flow Response Model to simulate the river runoff and analysis of the sensitivity of runoff in different regions for different factors. In this paper,Tennant method in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi were studied river ecological water demand, illustrate the problem about the intensity of human activities under different river flow in the study area can satisfied the various levels of ecological water. Results of this study for the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in the future development of science in the establishment of water management measures, the rational allocation of water resources and ecological forecasting river flow is of great significance.