Risk Analysis Of Water Shortage In Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone

With the rapid development of economy and society and the continuous increase of population in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,the demand for water resources in the economic zone is also increasing.The contradiction betxween supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent.The shortage of water resources has gradually become a bottleneck restricting the rapid development of the economic zone.Based on the actual situation of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,this paper analyzes and studies the risk of water shortage in the economic zone by using the variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,and discusses the methods and measures to solve the problem of water shortage in the economic zone,so as to promote the sustainable development of economic society in the economic zone.The main contents and results of this paper are as follows:Firstly,a variable comprehensive evaluation model of water resources shortage risk is constructed based on risk rate,vulnerability,recoverability,recurrence period and risk degree.The risk of water resources shortage in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi is analyzed and evaluated.The results show that the risk levels of Beihai City are 4-5 and 3-4 in 2016-2020 and 2021-2025.The risk level of Fangchenggang City is 3-4 in 2016-2020,and that of Qinzhou City is 4-3 in 2016-2020 and 2021-2025.The risk is still high and needs to be dealt with.Secondly,the macro-management measures of water resources shortage risk in Beihai and Qinzhou arc formulated.The results show that the risk rate,vulnerability and risk degree of water resources shortage in Behai City,Qinzhou City in 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 are lower than before,and the recoverability and recurrence period are higher than before,and Beihai City in 2016-2025.In 2020,the risk level of water shortage decreased from 4-5 to 3-4 before regulation,from 3-4 to 1-2 before regulation in 2021-2025,from 4 to 3-4 before regulation in 2016-2020 in Qinzhou,and from 3 to 4 before regulation in 2021-2025.Low to 1?2 grade.Finally,we sum up experience and put forward suggestions for water resources risk control in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.