The Research Of Forecast Mixture Models On The Tourist Transportation Capacity

Road tourist transportation industry is booming, tourism has become an important part of life.Visitors travel needs vehicle carrying,now,the size and structure of tourism capacity,there are still a big problem.The capacity is an important indicator,and also an important basis for the development of tourist transportation.In order to provide reasonable delivery capacity,this paper will establish qualitative and quantitative prediction methods,to grasp the demand from the level of number.Existing researches on capacity show,road tourist transportation capacity development has its own distinctive features,but now,the forecast are not well fully reflect these characterristiscs.And although the prediction methods are very rich,however,these prediction methods can not be transplanted directly into the path of road tourist transportation capacity forecast.Various prediction methods have their advantages and disadvantages and scope of application,and are closely linked with the characteristics of the predictive objects.Taking the gray GM(1,1) prediction model,extension prediction model,regression prediction model and model based on transportation,combing their own developed characteristics of road tourist transportation capacity,giving fully play to their advantages,avoiding single forecasting model’s inadequate,this paper constructs combination prediction model in forecasting the road tourist transportation.On the basis of the above ideas on,this paper includes five parts altogether:the first part describes the research background,significance and research status abroad and domestic and the overall framework of this paper;the second part describes the demand characteristics,factors and changes in the characteristics of the road tourist transportation capacity;the third part constructs the forecast model of road tourist transportation capacity;the fourth part mainly describes the reliability verification and calibration parameters of the model;the fifth part takes xiamen as an example,using the model what was established in chapter three,getting the results of the road tourist transportation capacity in xiamen.This paper aiming at providing a method for the prediction of road tourist passenger capacity.