Research On Forecasting Analysis Method Of Tourist Chartered Cars Transport Capacity Demand

With the rapid development of transportation and communication technology and the advent of the era of mass tourism,Chinese tourism scale continues to expand,and the form of tourism has gradually changed from "attraction tourism" to " total tourism",which provides new opportunities.As the main connection method of high-speed rail,chartered tourist vehicles are also increasingly demanded by "total tourism".Due to the fact that tourist passenger transport demand is seasonally changed,there is a large gap between passenger demand during peak and regular periods.There is often insufficient demand for capacity during peak periods,which leads companies to blindly invest in capacity,while in regular periods,the capacity is wasted.Therefore,how to reasonably forecast the demand for chartered tourist vehicle capacity has become an important issue that needs attended to.This article firstly conducted a survey of the chartered tourist market in Guilin from three aspects: tourists,travel agencies and transport companies in order to fully understand the current status and characteristics of the development of chartered tourist transport.and according to the survey,existing problems and related factors were analyzed.Then grey models(GM)was used to predict the annual visitor volume,and distribution models and trip factors were analyzed to determine the ratio of chartered tourist vehicle usage and forecast the future passenger flow demand.Then,a model for forecasting the capacity of tourism chartered tourist vehicles was established based on the balance theory of supply-demand and income-expense,to predict the demand for the capacity of tourism chartered tourist vehicles from two perspectives of passenger demand and transportation enterprise management.A hybrid forecasting model is established with the minimum squared sum of prediction errors as the target to determine the amount of tourist chartered car transportation capacity.Finally,the research results were applied for studying the chartered tourist vehicle capacity in Guilin.to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the forecasting method,and constructive suggestions are provided for the development of the chartered tourist capacity in the city.Effective forecasting of the demand for travel charter capacity not only optimizes the structure of the chartered tourist vehicle market,but also improves the level of customer service,which could also strengthen the supervision of chartered tourist vehicle providers and keep the supply-demand balance,while enhancing the efficiency of enterprises,which is of great significance to the development of the chartered tourist transport industry.