Research On The Dynamic Mechanism Of Regional Tourism Economy Development Based On Quantile Regression

Chris Cooper believes that the reason why tourism attracts more attention is the economic advantage, The Yangtze River Delta region is famous for its status in the national economy, its economy, transportation, politics, tourism. So its lead the national economic development. But within the region, the level of the tourism development and the driving forces are not the same. So depict the driving forces affecting the development of the tourism economy and analysis the dominant driving force factors under different level of development of regional tourism economy and finally building dynamic mechanism of regional tourism economic development is the key to promote tourism economy. So it has become a hot issue among academic circles.Firstly, we summarize the progress research in foreign and China, and clarify tourism economy, dynamic mechanism and other related concepts. Then we use standard deviation, coefficient of variation and the kernel density method to depict the tourism economic development of the Yangtze Delta Region. Next we use the principal component analysis to build a competitiveness evaluation index system about tourism economy. Then using quantile regression analysis method to analyze the factors that will impact the development of tourism economy. According to different dominant driving factors in tourism economic development, we build dynamic mechanism of regional tourism economic development.We use quantile regression to depict the tourism economic factors intensively, and use system dynamics theory as a guide to depict the dynamic mechanism of tourism economy on stage. It makes up for deficiency that we did not notice different tourism economy when we analysis the factors. This paper provides certain significance to the tourism economy development of Yangtze River Delta region.The results show that:(1) tourism economic system is composed of a thrust subsystem, attraction subsystem, intermediary subsystem, decision subsystem and the support system interaction, the problem of dynamic mechanism of tourism economic is the research interaction mechanism between the various power dynamic mechanism of tourism economic system.(2) Influence factor of tourism economy mainly includes9parts:the quality of human capital, human capital, city location, city fashion degree, tourism resources, tourism infrastructure, foreign economic ties, the environmental quality of the city and the city infrastructure factor.(3) The quantile regression analysis shows that tourism resources and external contact with economic ties are critical for the early development of tourism economy. The investment of infrastructure construction and its return rate is not proportional and the marginal effect is weakened gradually. With the development of tourism economy, improve tourism facilities conditions can bring great benefits; environment variable is greater effect on the lower site; the quality of human capital for the tourism economic effects are not better than the effect of human capital number, but it is growing at the last; the improve in conditions of city location had basically no effect on tourism economic level of the Yangtze River Delta.(4) The tourism economy is divided into different three stages:beginning, development and prosperity, the dynamic mechanism of different stages of tourism economy can be divided into three levels:Resources-Environment-driven, information-human capital-driven and travel services driven.(5) We make recommendations for the economic for the economic development of Yangtze River Delta tourism:the stage of beginning should strengthen regional cooperation, develop characteristic tourism products, to shape the characteristics of tourism features of small towns; the stage of development should vigorously promote the wisdom tourism construction, development of online tourism innovation, culture tourism high top talent; the stage of prosperous should strive to build the Inn Boutique, stick to diversified development strategy and improve tourism service facilities in order to achieve the sustainable development of tourism economy.