An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between China 's Automobile Industry And Economic Growth

Since china has issued the First Automotive Work shop in 1953, history of automotive industry has past 60 years. With the rapid development of China’s automotive industry, China’s automotive industry has become one of the most important pillar industries which promote national economic development. In addition to strong industrial association and relatively industrial chain, automotive industry also focus on technology and capital, which means a lot to upstream & downstream firms. So use the tools of statistical and econometric analysis to test the relationship between automotive industry and growth of economy will help us insight into more details of such relationship.All of such trail is meaningful work as a consequence of the environment at this moment.This paper begins with analyzing present situation of automotive industry what based on three points: History of Development, Economic Status and Current Situation. During the empirical studies, we use Feder model and such approaches as the co-integration test, Granger-causality test and Regression analysis are adopted to support the previous conclusions from the perspective of data. An empirical study is given to the direct influence and overflow effect of automotive industry in varying-coefficient panel data models. On one hand, this paper establishes a regression model of Period Varying-coefficient to test the direct influence and indirect effects of automotive industry during different periods. And on the other, this paper also establishes a Cross-section Varying-coefficient Model to make comparisons between different provinces.This paper has come to the conclusion mainly includes: firstly, China automotive industry plays a positive role to national economic development. The peak value 0.109169% appeared in 2000, which means 0.109169 units of automotive industry will contribute to per unit of GDP growth in 2000. Secondly, on the whole, the contribution of automotive industry presents a look of regionalism. Thirdly, We Found that the greatest weight doesn’t means the most significant effects when analyze the direct influence and the weights of GDP.As old industrial bases, Jilin’s weight has ever exceeded 50% but its effects is still in the middle lever. At last, Generally speaking, the overflow effect of automotive is more significant than direct influence to a certain extent.And at last this paper provide related policy suggestion aimed at factors that affecting the development of automotive industry and present problem we found according to analyzing comparisons between different provinces.