An Empirical Study On The Influence Of Comparative Advantage Evolution On China 's Manufacturing Industry

Since entering the middle-income stage, with the development of economy and the improvement of people’s living standard, the comparative advantages of the traditional factors of production weakened gradually in our country. For a long time, manufacturing industry as an engine of economic growth, it is closely related to economic development. Therefore, grasp the objective law of comparative advantage evolution, explore the path of manufacturing industry to upgrade, It is of great significance for our country to crossing high-income stage.The aim of this paper is to explore the comparative advantage evolution to the influence of the manufacturing industry upgrade, to grasp the objective law of comparative advantage evolution in our country, provide policy recommendations about to realize the promotion of the position of manufacturing industry in the global value chain. Therefore, on the basis of literature review, this paper firstly construct the evaluation index system of the evolution of comparative advantage, the quantitative analysis of the our country entering the middle-income stage the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage; Second, with export complexity measure of manufacturing in China since entering the middle-income stage position in the global value chain, and from the three perspectives of manufacturing industry in our country makes a statistic analysis on the upgrade process; Finally, 27 kinds of manufacturing industry can be divided into three categories, labor intensive, capital intensive, technology intensive and build grey prediction GM(1, N) model empirical analysis the influence on the comparative advantage evolution to manufacturing upgrade process, on this basis to further clarify the comparative advantage dynamic evolution in China since entering the middle-income stage and the history of the manufacturing industry upgrade process, as well as the influence mechanism of comparative advantage evolution to manufacturing industry to upgrade,.The results show that:(1) The overall development trend of comparative advantage is gradually improved. However, so far the primary factors of production has a comparative advantage, but its comparative advantage is gradually weakening; The comparative advantages of advanced factors of production present roughly the rising trend, but the current is still at a disadvantage position.(2) From the overall level, our manufacturing position in the global value chain is in gradually improve, but compared with the rest of the world situation is not ideal, in addition to the individual industry in a leading position, not only lagged behind the developed countries, most of the industries lagged behind some developing countries.(3)The comparative advantage evolution of production factors to China’s manufacturing industry upgrade was positively to the role. The degree of labor supply, abundant capital level, human resource level, innovation and research ability, high and new technology level the comparative advantage evolution of the five factors of production, respectively to technology intensive, capital intensive, capital intensive and technology intensive, technology intensive manufacturing industry have highest coefficient of driving.(4)So called new and high technology industry in China is not high knowledge, high value-added industries, some industries while itself belongs to high and new technology industry, but our participation is low technology content, low knowledge content, low value-added production link, the so-called high and new technology industry’s competitiveness mainly comes from China’s low labor costs.Innovation points:(1) About the evolution of comparative advantage of quantitative methods, the existing studies are mostly using comparative advantage index to the quantitative comparative advantage evolution, this paper build the comparative advantage of the evaluation index system,this system includes primary factors of production and advanced factors of production, to quantify the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage.(2) On the processing of index data, different just select one or more factors of production, analysis of the dynamic change of the influence of the manufacturing industry upgrade. This article take the various factors of production index and the ratio to the world average, more objective measure of each factor comparative advantage evolution, and analyzes its impact on the manufacturing industry upgrade.(3) On the set of models, the basic selection panel data model to analyze some influencing factors of effect on the manufacturing industry upgrade. This article selects the grey prediction GM(1, N) model to carry on the empirical analysis, to solve the various factors of production evaluation index divisions of comparative advantage evolution data acquisition difficulties.