Study On The Characteristics And Forecast Of Consumption Growth Cycle In Guizhou Province

The significance of consumption becomes more and more important toeconomic development, and the cyclical change is a kind of phenomenon of economicups and downs fluctuation that expansion and contraction appear alternately, it canhave the effect of forecast trend and belongs to the category of macroeconomicresearch. So for the research of consumption growth cycle can be better to expanddomestic demand, promote economic development mode change, and directlyimprove people’s standard of living. For guizhou region, the research of consumptiongrowth cycle and make full use of its characteristics and prediction, better boosteconomy transformation, accelerate industrial structure upgrade, bring a win-winreturn for consumers and businesses.For the characteristic and prediction research of domestic consumption growthcycle, the majority of research is to use the research method of cycles analysis toanalyze a few developed provinces and cities, but for the researches of the fluctuationin Guizhou province’s consumption growth cycle are less. when the consumptionsituation in Guizhou tends to separate using time series analysis forecasting modelrather than in combination with the comprehensive analysis of consumption growthcycle prediction.In this paper, the empirical study of consumption growth fluctuation inGuizhou mainly includes four parts.The first part, the element decomposition of the total retail sales of socialconsumer goods in Guizhou. Using X-11seasonal adjustment method, the HP filtermethod to isolate seasonal factors, recycling elements and trend, it analyzes andelaborates the circle elements’volatility.The second part, the establishment of comprehensive and diffusion index.Using cycle analysis method, screening of sentiment indicators, through the diffusionindex synthetic method and the comprehensive index synthetic method, calculate theconsistent and leading comprehensive, diffusion index, establish a comprehensiveindex of the fluctuation in Guizhou province consumption growth cycle and thediffusion index of sentiment, and analyzes its characteristics and cause of thevolatility. The third part, the establishment of the model. Using eviews software, settingup AR (3) model of the ARIMA model, carrying on the test results analysis, usingthe model fitting data in2013compared with the original data, verify the modelfitting effect, finally make prediction for the time sequence of social total retail salesin2014in Guizhou province.The fourth part, according to the above three parts of research conclusion aboutcharacteristics and prediction of the residents’ consumption growth fluctuation inGuizhou, the future for the government formulation of relevant promote consumptioncountermeasures are also proposed.