Transaction Cost Analysis And Scenario Simulation Of Ecological Policy Performance Of Naiman Banner In Inner

The performance evaluation of ecological policy is essential for the supervision, feedback and improves of policy. But the traditional methods of performance evaluation of public policy have many deficiencies, which cannot be served as an effective tool. This article will be from a new angle of view that use the transaction costs as the tool of performance evaluation of ecological policy, which will provide new ideas and methods for the evaluation, research and application of the performance of public policy. In addition to the general literature research, social investigation, the econometric model, marginal analysis and other methods, the evolution trend and scenario simulation studies mainly be used as the research methods of this article, which, makes policy recommendations has better application value.The design of the index system of ecological policy of transaction costs in this article is based on the research results of Williamson and Yang Xiaokai, which is about the classification and structure of the transaction cost. Then I build the structure index of the performance evaluation of policy. Four ecological policy project programs, which are Grain for Green Project, return grazing land to grassland, Green Wall of China and small watershed management in Naiman banner, Inner Mongolia, are chosen as the research object. Transaction costs and performance index of four ecological policy project programs were calculated by using the survey data, which is processed by a discount. According to the calculation results, the absolute value of the transaction cost of four ecological policy project programs showed a trend of rising. Static averages of the index of policy performance about the four ecological policy project programs are 0.79, 0.83,0.88 and 0.869, respectively. According to the level of division about policy performance, the performance of four ecological policy programs are good, very good, very good, very good, respectively. From the point of dynamic index of policy performance, the performance of four ecological policies showed a trend of decline. In order to eliminate the uncertainty of policy suggestions in the process of implementation, ARIMA model is used to carry out policy evolution trend prediction and scene simulation prediction. The independent variables which are used to build ARIMA model include the ratio of economic investment of farmer to the cost of production (FC), the ratio of the costs of engineering construction and operating to transaction costs (OC) and the ratio of the sum of supervision cost and seek punishment cost to transaction costs (SC). Situation prediction scheme has six. Whether the measures of scenario plan will improve policy performance is judged by comparing policy performance index under different scenarios schemes with the predictive value of evolution trend. Pertinence suggestionsare put forward finally.In this paper, the research conclusions have the following several aspects.1. Transaction costs as the tool of performance evaluation of public policy is new, feasible and effective.2. With the passage of time, the absolute value of the transaction cost of four ecological policy project programs showed a trend of rising.3. The performance of Grain for Green Project is good, the performance of return grazing land to grassland, the performance of Green Wall of China and the performance of small watershed management are better.4. The reason of the difference between different ecological policy performances can be attributed to the size of investment of farmer, the investment structure, the degree of the public participation in the process of policy formulation and implementation, policy associated with farmers’ interests and the opportunity cost, supervision.5. According to the ARIMA model, the predictive value of PI of Grain for Green Project and return grazing land to grassland is showed a trend of increasing, the predictive value of PI of Green Wall of China and small watershed management is showed a trend of increasing.6. Grain for Green Project, return grazing land to grassland and Green Wall of China have big improvement space. The space of small watershed management to improve is lesser.7. Farmers’ investment in the construction of ecological policy program is not the lower the better.The innovation of this article is mainly manifested in two aspects. On the one hand, Quantitative evaluation of the ecological policy performance, which is based on the transaction cost, provides a new train of thought for the performance evaluation of ecological policy and public policy. On the other hand, the study of trend evolution and scene simulation of ecological policy provides practices to improve policy for policy makers. And that it will makes the public policy recommendations be more feasible and more accurate. The research achievements of this paper have stronger application value.