Policy Of Affordable Housing Based On Housing Vouchers And Its Scenario Simulation

Since the 1990s, along with the development of industrialization and urbanization in China, housing problems of low-income people in urban areas have drawn more and more attention. Policies of affordable housing, such as economically affordable house, low-rent house and houses which are with limited price and habitable area, were consecutively enacted. However, problems still exist, for lack of local governments'driving forces, low quality of affordable housing built, as well as housing support not benefit to the people who really need. It is of important practical significance to explore ways out of dilemma in the current affordable housing construction, to achieve goal of "adequate housing to everyone".Based on the relevant data of affordable housing construction during 1997-2008 in China, the paper analyzes the current situation of affordable housing construction. Problems of "lack of local governments'driving forces "," developers'passion in high-end residential houses", "affordable housing breeding the abuse of power with corruption-prone", "the difficulty for subsidy to achieve the cumulative effect of rolling" and so on are confirmed from the data. Then, combined with existing research of scholars, the paper uses micro-economic model to analyze the different social efficiency between two forms of subsidy-"bricks subsidies" and "poll subsidies", proofs are presented to show that "poll subsidies" can achieve higher social efficiency than "bricks subsidies". Also, the implementation of "poll subsidies" can break the "dual system" of the housing land supply in the past, reduce administrative costs and improve administrative efficiency, while consumers'choices are respected by granting them the right to make the optimal choice based on their actual housing demand.With higher social efficiency in "poll subsidies" compared to "bricks subsidies" it is quite meaningful to study what mode should be adopted to fully protect the low-income people's "housing rights" in the actual operation. Housing vouchers can introduce the market competition mechanism and free choice mechanism into the housing security system, to guide healthy competition among developers and allow participants to choose houses while avoid poor-quality commercial houses. So, the paper proposes "housing vouchers" as a realization model of "poll subsidies", designs a implementation process of the housing voucher policy, eventually build a urban housing system in which "minimum-income families can lease the low-rent housing provided by governments or institutions; low-and middle-income families can purchase or lease condominium with government's housing subsidies of vouchers; high-income families can purchase or lease condominium in market price.The paper uses system dynamics to establish model of affordable housing system, divide which into four subsystems:population sub-system, economic subsystem, affordable housing investment subsystems, affordable housing benefits subsystem, clarifies the causal relationship between variables then applies a policy simulation in Hangzhou, as an example. Results of the scenario simulation show that different levels of personal credit, stable condition of real estate market, the proportion of value of total urban housing vouchers on regional financial income and other parameters have a significant difference on the affordable housing benefit range. " Soil of system " required by the implementation of the housing voucher policy is proposed according to the scenario-based simulation results, including "a stable real estate market", "a sound personal credit information system", "a clear and scientific affordable housing planning". The paper also proposes some political suggestions on how to set the "soil of system" and related measures needed, providing policy recommendations for policy makers.Finally, the paper emphasizes that the problem of path dependence in the reform process of affordable housing policy should be fully considered. As a transitional stage, the State can continue the recent economically affordable housing policies, and then take the lead in the introduction of housing voucher policy for rental subsidies, that is to change the recent affordable housing policies into comprehensive policies of "bricks subsidies with housing vouchers for rental subsidies". With the further improvement of the housing voucher system, when the real estate market is stable and the level of social integrity increases, government can consider introducing subsidized housing vouchers for the purchase, truly realizing the change affordable housing subsidies from the "bricks subsidies" to "poll subsidies ".