Study On Energy Structure Optimization In China Under The Peak Target Of Carbon Emission

Coal is the main source in the energy consumption structure which hascaused huge carbon emission and severe environmental problems. Ourgovernment has formulated explicit energy policies to control the energystructure. By increasing the proportion of natural gas and non‐fossil energysources,theenergyconsumptionstructurecanbeoptimized.With the continuous high-speed economic developments, the structure has also met a period of backward and stagnant for a short time. Our government has promised that the peak ofcarbonemissionofChinawillbeintheyearof2030inNovember2014.HoweverChina’scarbonemissionhasageneraltrendofraisesince1980,withanaverageannualincreaseof5.4%.WhetherChinacanachievethepeakofcarbonemission,itdependsonsomeimportantconditions.In the “new normal” period of our economic development, environmental carrying capacity is close to the upper limit, and retroaction of the environmental constraints will trigger the optimization of energy structure. The optimization should follow the direction of “decarbonization and hydrogenization”, at the same time, the utilization of the clean coal and the inherent rationality of the energy structure must be paid attention to, according to our national condition. The Kaya Identity formula andendogenousgrowthmodelhasbeenusedtoanalyzethenecessaryconditionandsufficient condition for China to achieve the peak of carbon emission in thisarticle.Wefindthatinordertoachievethegoalofemission,aswellasavoidtherigidconstraintscausedbytheemission,theoptimizationofenergy’sstructuremustbecarriedout,andthefactorsinputandtechnologyprogressofnon‐fossilenergy sector must be increased. In this article, the Markov‐chain model ofenergystructure’spredictionandthemodelofenergystructure’soptimizationbased on multi‐objective decision have been used to predict and optimize theenergystructureofChinauptotheyearof2030.Inexistingscenario,thereareseveraluncertaintiesintheachievementofpeakofcarbonemission.However,ifputteditinthesituationwithaprioritytoenvironmentalprotection,thepeakofcarbonemissionishopefullytoachieveintheyearof2030,withapeaknumberaround10.7billiontons.In theory, energy structure’s optimization means increasing the proportion of natural gas and non‐fossil energy sources. As to the empirical condition, we should consider the rule of historical evolution and the government’s policy goal when we carry forward the energy structure’s optimization, meanwhile some other factors like efficiency, rationality, resource potential, and environment‐friendly must be considered. The latter has more policy implication than the former, so it is necessary to put the latter into practice.