An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between The American S&P500 Index And Macroeconomic Indicators

The relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy has already formed the core proposition of the economic system. In particular, the relationship between the securities market and the macro economic operation is an important research topic in the financial field. The U.S. stock market has been developped more than 200 years, experienced by speculation fraud barbarous to transparent government under the supervision of the health, being nowadays one of the most mature capital market, which is the innovation and development of the development of the national economy, business entity has played a role in indelible. At the same time, throughout the history of the United States, America also experienced the 1929 stock market crash, the beginning of twenty-first Century, the beginning of the Internet bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis. How to deal with the relationship between the real economy and the real economy has become a topic for a long time.The U.S. stock market as a whole as the research object, the standard & Poor’s 500 index as the basis, to the gross national product (GNP), the velocity of money, the consumer price index for macroeconomic indicators, to take a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis method, to study the relationship between the stock market and the macro economy operation. In the theoretical analysis, this paper expounds the impact of the macro economy on the stock price and the reverse effect of the stock market to the macro economy. In the empirical analysis, this paper constructs the VAR model, and then through the impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition to draw the conclusion:in general, the GDP increase is conducive to the stock price rise. In the short term, GDP will increase makes money from the stock market to pull away into the real economy, cause the price to fall; long term, the economy continued to grow for price increases and the impact of the current period of late effects of weight more and smaller and smaller. Which also can be seen in developed countries with mature capital markets, "after the departure from the" still exists, stock market and macro economy "barometer" of mainly reflected in the medium term (2-3 years after). The increase in the rate of currency circulation brought about the fall of stock prices, and this negative effect, the short period (1 years) has the greatest impact, and then gradually weakened (after 2 years). The increase in inflation will lead to a fall in stock prices, which has a great impact on the stock price, but only for short periods (1 years). Finally, combining with the experience in the market of China’s capital market construction recommendations, should play the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources, promote economic restructuring and upgrading; strengthen supervision, establish and perfect the legal system of stock market regulations and enforced; establish a reasonable market environment, vigorously develop institutional investors, to retail; build a multi-level capital market, promote the registration system reform, reduce financing costs.