Disparity Between The Rich And The Poor After China’s Reform And Opening Analysis Based On Time Series Models

The determination of the gini coefficient is internationally recognized as income distribution gap in economic indicator. In this paper, through the establishment of summation autoregressive moving average(ARIMA model and Eviews5.0 implementation of rural residents during 1982 to 2014 families gini coefficient and ARIMA model is established, by using data from 2012 to 2014 to test model is optimal, and then predict residents from 2016 to 2019, the gini coefficient, finally puts forward policy Suggestions according to the results of the prediction. Results showed that the application of ARIMA can undertake short-term prediction of residents nationwide gini coefficient, and the effect is better. Can be seen from the result of prediction, the residents of the gini coefficient is still in the high above 0.4, and present a small-scope fluctuation trend of relatively stable, indicating that our country residents to narrow the gap between rich and poor, is still a tough job, we need to take more effective measures to deal with.