The Evaluation And Choice Of Subsidy Policy On Housing Security

Since low-rent housing and public rental housing started merging, the supply system of housing guarantee has been being adjusted and improved. The developing orientation is to build public rental housing as the main type of rental housing subsidies system. In the process, policy making of housing subsidies has become an important urgent issue. Therefore, It is of important operation significance to analyze and evaluate the current housing subsidy policies, which could provide references in formulating housing policies. To evaluate the policy effect of rental subsidies、housing vouchers and "rent now, subsidy later" mode in living area、income level and commuting costs, this paper uses the security household micro data of six cities in Hubei province in 2013 by Tobit、Heckman and Ordered Probit models. To avoid possible endogenous problems of explanatory variables, the paper takes counterfactual propensity score matching method to get the net effect of housing subsidy policies.The results can be divided into three aspects. First, on living standard improvement, "rent now, subsidy later" mode shows larger effect than rental subsidies and housing vouchers do. Compared with rental subsidies, it improves about 25.728 square metre more while rental subsidies and housing vouchers have little influence on living standard of guarantee object. Second, on income effect, compared with rental subsidies, "rent now, subsidy later" mode significantly raises the revenue growth of guarantee object by 29.5 percent while housing vouchers reduces that by 7.2 percent. Third, on commuting costs, housing voucher and "rent now, subsidy later" mode both greatly enhance the commuting costs of guarantee object by about 30.2 percent compared with rental subsidies. Based on the conclusion, this paper proposes to establish a housing security system using the lease as the main body; give full play to the role of market mechanism, return security object the market choosing right; government repurchases the commodity housing which conform to the conditions as the resource of public rental housing, opens the housing channel between commercial housing and the policy housing; carry out the separated management system between rent and supplement and the rent charged and spending on subsidies classified regulation, to improve the efficiency of subsidies and management; strengthen the construction of information system for housing and security groups to ensure the housing security management to be standard and efficient.