| The increase of consumption drives economy. To expand the domestic demand, total consumption volume should be increased, and consumption structure should be adjusted, optimizing and upgraded as well.In the background of high housing price, low birth rate meets a turning point and population aging, this paper analyzes the status and component of domestic consumption, and also analyzes the changes of urban residents’ total consumption and consumption structure over the years. We choose reduced- form model, system- GMM estimate, the panel data of consumption, housing price, the youth dependency ratio, old dependency ratio and income through 31 provinces in urban of C hina during the period 2004—2013 and a variable which presents consumer inertia, and then we conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impacts of housing price and population age structure on total consumption and consumption structure.The results suggest that consumer inertia exists in each categories of consumption. Income has a highly link with consumption, except the consumption of health care and medical services. Total consumption only affected by consumer inertia and income. The structural differences in the effect of housing price fluctuation on consumption due to speculating behaviors in C hinese real estate market. The youth dependency ratio has a negative impact on clothing consumption, while the old dependency ratio has a positive impact on the consumption of household facilities, health care and medical services. Therefore,based on the conclusions, this paper put forward proposals to upgrade Chinese domestic consumption. |
