| Consumption,investment and exports have been used as troikas to stimulate economic development.However,China has always had a low consumption rate in the process of economic development,which will largely restrict the development of China’s economy.Therefore,in order to promote the sustainable development of China’s economy,we must continuously improve the consumption level of our residents.Due to the economic development and the implementation of the family planning policy over the past two decades,the age structure of China’s population has undergone major changes,and the aging population and the low fertility are becoming more and more serious,which will directly or indirectly affect the consumption of Chinese residents;at the same time,people in different ages have different housing needs,which will also affect housing prices;since the housing reform,China’s housing prices have continued to rise,and real estate as a pillar industry for economic development,housing prices can also have an impact on household consumption.It can be seen that there is a certain correlation between the age structure of the population,housing prices and household consumption.Therefore,grasping the relationship between population age structure,housing prices and urban residents’ consumption is of great significance for stimulating urban residents’ consumption and promoting the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy.In order to further understand the relationship between population age structure,house price and urban residents’ consumption,this paper firstly attempts to explore the influence of population age structure on the consumption of residents,the mechanism of house prices affecting household consumption,and the impact of the age structure of population on household consumption through the influence of house prices.Then in the empirical part,this paper first uses the mediation effect test to test whether there is a mediating effect between the age structure of the population,housing prices and urban residents’ consumption.Then the empirical method of sysGMM is used to analyze the relationship between the population age structure,house price and urban residents’ consumption..The research shows that: First,house prices are the mediators between the age structure of the population and the consumption of urban residents,and there is a partial mediating effect,which means that the population structure can have an indirect impact on urban residents’ consumption through house prices.Second,the increase in the dependency ratio of children in China will obviously promote the consumption of urban residents.Although the old-age dependency ratio changes inversely with the consumption of urban residents,the correlation is not particularly significant.Third,house prices are positively correlated with urban residents’ consumption,and there is a positive housing wealth effect.Fourth,the interaction between child rearing ratio and house price will weaken the promotion effect of child rearing ratio on urban residents’ consumption,and the interaction between old-age dependency ratio and house price will weaken the restraining effect of old-age dependency ratio on urban residents’ consumption.Fifth,the correlation between population age structure,housing prices and urban residents’ consumption is basically consistent with the relevant relationship at the national level,but there are still some differences between regions.Finally,based on the relevant conclusions,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. |
