| At present,China's social and economic situation has undergone an important change.Under the background of the new normal,the role of consumption in promoting economic growth needs to be highlighted.At the same time,the change of the main social contradictions reflects the people's growing need for a better life,and the transformation and upgrading of residents' consumption structure has become an inevitable trend.According to international experience,when a country's per capita GDP reaches US$8,000-9,000,consumption preferences and consumption structure will change,and the growth of consumption demand will change from the survival type,quantity type to the development type and enjoyment type.According to the data released by the World Bank,China's per capita GDP reached US$8,643 in 2017,which has the material conditions for high-level consumption.The consumption demand of residents is facing the transformation and upgrading of leisure consumption.From the perspective of leisure consumption potential,this paper focuses on constructing an analytical framework of influencing factors of leisure consumption potential of urban residents,and explores the theoretical mechanism of housing price and population age structure influencing leisure consumption potential in the light of key issues in China's social and economic development,with a view to finding an effective way to release leisure consumption potential of urban residents.Around the above-mentioned central topics,the main research objectives of this paper include: first,to summarize the evolution characteristics of leisure consumption in scale and structure of urban residents in China.Second,to construct an index system for measuring leisure consumption potential,and to conduct a comprehensive measurement and analysis of leisure consumption potential of urban residents in China.Third,to explore the analysis framework of influencing factors of leisure consumption potential,and then to explore housing prices.Fourth,empirically study the impact of housing price and population age structure on leisure consumption potential of urban residents,and further investigate its spatial heterogeneity.In order to achieve the above objectives,this paper comprehensively uses system analysis,comparative study,panel data model,geographically weighted regression model and a variety of spatial analysis methods to study the leisure consumption potential of urban residents in China.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the total amount and structure of leisure consumption of urban residents in China have undergone significant changes in the past two decades.These changes show obvious regional differences and have a certain spatial correlation.The scale of leisure consumption increases as a whole,but the growth rate of leisure consumption slows down gradually.The structure of leisure consumption has been continuously optimized,among which the consumption of education,culture,entertainment,transportation,communication and medical care has increased rapidly.The regional differences of traffic and communication consumption are large,while the differences of medical and health care consumption are small.The spatial interaction of educational,cultural and entertainment consumption is relatively obvious.Secondly,leisure consumption capacity,leisure consumption expenditure and leisure consumption environment can comprehensively reflect and evaluate the level of leisure consumption potential of urban residents.Leisure consumption expenditure plays a more prominent role in highlighting the leisure consumption potential of urban residents,but the importance of leisure consumption environment has become increasingly prominent.With the increasing level of leisure consumption potential,the leisure consumption potential of urban residents has evolved in stages,the spatial layout has changed greatly,and the type attribution has been adjusted accordingly.Thirdly,the income level of residents,the cost of living,the fixed assets of families,the burden of families and the willingness of leisure consumption are the important aspects that affect the potential of leisure consumption.Due to the adjustment of population policy and the acceleration of ageing process,housing price and population age structure have become the key factors affecting residents' leisure consumption potential.The mechanism analysis shows that housing price has a comprehensive impact on the leisure consumption potential of urban residents through wealth effect,crowding out effect and collateral effect,while the age structure of population is based on the life cycle hypothesis and the micro-mechanism of household savings demand model,and influences the leisure consumption potential through external factors such as leisure supply,industrial structure and economic growth.Fourthly,the housing price and the elderly dependency ratio have a positive impact on the leisure consumption potential of urban residents,while the child dependency ratio has a significant negative impact.Housing price has obvious wealth effect and collateral effect on leisure consumption potential.The increase of the elderly population helps to accelerate the improvement of leisure consumption potential of urban residents.The increase of the number of children has a certain inhibitory effect on leisure consumption potential.From the regional comparison results,the influence coefficient of the old-age dependency ratio in the eastern region,the housing price in the central region and the child dependency ratio in the western region are relatively large.The influence coefficient of the child dependency ratio in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone is relatively large,while the influence coefficient of the housing price and the old-age dependency ratio in the Pan-Pearl River Delta Economic Zone is relatively large.Fifthly,there are obvious inter-provincial differences in leisure consumption potential of urban residents.The leisure consumption potential of urban residents in eastern China,especially in southeastern coastal areas,is in an obvious dominant position.The spatial pattern of leisure consumption potential has changed from vertical "Chuan" type to horizontal "Chuan" type.The spatial pattern of leisure consumption potential of urban residents has become stable in the middle.From the direction of spatial distribution,the change of leisure consumption potential of urban residents from north to south is faster than that from northeast to southwest.Sixthly,the impact of housing price and population age structure on leisure consumption potential of urban residents has significant spatial heterogeneity.The absolute affordability of residents in developed areas is relatively strong,and the potential of leisure consumption is less sensitive to rising housing prices.Because of the role of consumption habits and the concept of "Raise children to provide against old age",there are differences in the influence of child support ratio in different regions.The consumption of health care for the elderly in the underdeveloped areas of social economy is relatively rigid,and the increase of the elderly population has obvious pulling effect on the potential of leisure consumption.However,with the increasing importance of leisure consumption in people's lives,the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of housing prices and population age structure on leisure consumption potential will be reduced accordingly. |
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