| House prices are a very important price signal in the market economy,after 2004,most cities experienced rapid housing growth,but their growth rates varied.The boom and bust of house prices is likely to lead to the bursting of the housing bubble.Since 2005,the central government has issued a number of policies on the regulation of real estate,but the overall trend of housing prices has not been improved or even worse.Different levels of economic development correspond to different industrial levels of the whole country or city,thus affecting people's income level and expectations of living standards,therefore,when the level of housing price rises deviates from the level of economic development,it will be harmful to economic growth and social harmony,the relationship between the change of industrial structure and the change of housing price is worth exploring deeply.The first part is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research results and enlightenment of other factors that affect housing prices.The second part is the literature review,which mainly introduces the theoretical research status of related fields at home and abroad.The third part is the empirical research,which mainly introduces the selection of models,the setting and measurement methods of variables and the source of data and their specific explanations.The fourth part is the conclusion and policy suggestion,combining with the conclusion of this study,the future house price situation is analyzed simply,and the simple policy suggestion is put forward for the analysis.This paper studies the Links between Upgrading of industrial structure and Housing price in Chinese twenty-seven main through literature research and econometric analysis,trying to explain the impact of industrial structure upgrading on housing price.On the basis of this,this paper reflects the level of industrial structure upgrading through the ratio of the corresponding indexes of tertiary industry and secondary industry,by using the fixed effect and the generalized distance estimation method,the different impact paths of the industrial structure of different indexes on the local housing price are evaluated.In addition,I try to classify the housing price in a tentative way,and try to examine the response to the industrial structure upgrade of non-residential real estate prices,such as residential and commercial and office.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical research,the following important conclusions are drawn:First,although some years have fluctuated,the industrial structure level has been positively correlated with the housing price.In addition,the average wage variable and investment variable in real estate industry are also important influencing factors.In contrast,The variables representing population,juvenile dependency ratio and housing supply are not stable in the estimation results,and the explanatory power of the price increases is weak,expectations of rising house prices are largely supportive of rising house prices,At the same time,developers are using the asymmetry of market information to further strengthen the residents' psychological expectations and increase the demand for their purchase of housing,thus driving the continuous rise in housing prices.Second,the employment ratio and output value of the third and secondary industries will be different from the two methods.The emphasis on employment in terms of industrial structure will affect housing prices by influencing population structure,the difference between the life goal and the concept of the old people and the difference between the young people and the related variables are different in the explanatory power of the housing price.In contrast,when the industrial structure is measured in terms of output value,it will affect the housing price by influencing the level of economic development,which can be considered in two aspects:economic growth and economic fluctuation.Whether technological progress,leading industry to promote industrial structure upgrade or inputs from low productivity or low productivity growth sector to high productivity levels or high productivity growth sector flow to promote industrial structure upgrade,the resulting "structural dividend" is the core of the industrial structure affecting the economic development level.In addition,the policy changes of the leading industry will lead to changes in the overall investment structure and consumption structure of the whole society.The technological progress will break the balance of the original economy and make a big impact on some economic sectors,these can lead to economic fluctuations and even economic cycles,which affect the explanatory power of relevant variables on housing prices.Thirdly,based on the research results based on limited data,the impact of industrial structure upgrading on non-residential real estate prices is similar to that of residential real estate.In the case of commercial real estate value,the price depends on the supply and demand of commercial real estate,but the law of supply and demand of the real estate market in commercial and other categories is a little different from that of general merchandise.General commodity market price is very responsive to supply and demand,supply and demand balance and imbalance of converting speed is faster,and commercial real estate market price reactions to the change of supply and demand lags behind,the balance of supply and demand of the process is slow.To raise the level of urbanization and economic development would lead to urban per capita disposable income increase,will cause the commercial real estate investment demand categories such as,because China the housing real estate sales by individual investors to buy shares accounts for a considerable proportion of,so will cause prices to rise.In addition to raise the level of urbanization and economic development will lead to social commodity sales growth,the original business operators profits will rise,the profit of the rise in subsequent lease will lead to higher rents or business categories such as property prices rise directly,so as to promote the prosperity of the market.This paper adopts the data of major and medium cities in China,which is more accurate than the provincial data used in previous literatures,in addition,this paper compares the influence of the industrial structure level of the two methods on the different influence paths of housing price,finally,housing price is classified into two categories:housing and non-housing.Due to lack of data and horizontal restrictions,the classification of high-income industries and low-income industries that may be more valuable can not be further studied,samples from 27 major cities were also limited,without further classification and comparative analysis based on urban differences... |
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