Study On The Real Estate Market’s Risk Formation Mechanism And Its Risk Evaluation In Resource-based Cities

Like resource industry, real estate industry is the important pillar of regional economic development. Relying on the rich resources advantages to develop the resources industry, at the same time, the real estate industry has been developed rapidly,but the real estate market develop fast, causing the market imbalance and leading to the formation of the real estate market risk.Based on the analysis of relevant theories and research results at home and abroad,analysis of the real estate market risk formation mechanism. Combining with the particularity of resource-based cities, summed up the factors that affect the formation of resource-based city real estate market risk, it included: real estate commodity characteristic, national policy, investors expected, supply and demand, scarcity of land,bank loans, private lending and resource industries and so on. The risk formation mechanism of resource-based city real estate market is analyzed, and through the establishing grey analytic hierarchy model to evaluate those factors that influent the primary and secondary relationship of risk formation of the real estate market. This paper selected Yulin city as the research object to carry on empirical analysis, selected change rate of house prices as a measure of the market risk size and calculated the weight of Yulin real estate market risk factors, finally obtained the primary and secondary order of factors is: the financial markets have the greatest impact on the real estate industry funds, followed by the resource-based cities macroeconomic environment, then the imbalance between supply and demand of real estate market and land scarcity. According to the risk formation mechanism of resource-based cities’ real estate market, from perspective of the government, it put forward the countermeasuresto manage real estate market risk: macro-control of real estate market, real estate market’s demand and supply level, money supply level,and industrial connection and resource complementation between resource based cities.In this paper, the research result conducts a deep discussion about resource-based cities’ risk formation mechanism of real estate market, and determines the relationship between the primary and secondary factors, which can solve the resource-based cities’ real estate bubble, and it has certain reference value for improving the economic environment.