The Impact Prediction And Empirical Analysis Of Transport Demands Made By The Change Of Industrial Structure

After the development strategy of the Silk Road Economic Belt was proposed, industrial restructuring and cooperation is an important part of promoting the Silk Road Economic Belt through interoperability, becoming important support. With the provinces taking positive action to accelerate industrial restructuring, transport demands will certainly change. Therefore, a comprehensive measure and prediction of the impact about the industrial structure change on transport demands has important practical significance.Firstly, the paper outlines the connotation of industrial structure and transport demands, summarizes the general rules of industrial structure change and factors of transport demands, then puts forward new points of transport demands. On this basis, it describes the internal mechanism of industrial structure, economic development and transport demands. And comparatively analyses three theoretical models mainly used in the relationship between industrial structure and transport demands.Secondly, from six elements such as main part, space, number, time, price and technic, the paper qualitatively analyses the impact of industrial structure change on transport demands. Further, based on the input-output table, constructs a complete decomposition model of transport economic value from the quantitative aspect. Under different patterns of change in total economy, economic structure and total consumption coefficient, it studies on the model manifestations of transport economic value.Then, according to the prediction method of input-output tables in future, the paper gets total output and total consumption coefficient of all departments in Shaanxi Province in 2020, applies complete decomposition model to analyze change in transport economic value from 2012 to 2020 in Shaanxi Province. At the same time, through correlation analysis between changes in transport economic value and passenger and freight traffic from 2007 to 2012 in Shaanxi Province, it constructs a quadratic curve prediction model of passenger and freight traffic change.Finally, in the context of transport development in Shaanxi Province of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the paper empirically analyses the influence on industrial structure change on transport economic value and passenger and freight traffic. Combined with investment focus on the development of the Silk Road Economic Belt, predicts three factors of each industry sector in 2020, and the complete decomposition model is applied to analyze transport economic value caused by three industries, the secondary industry and tertiary industry. While using the data including transport economic value and passenger and freight traffic from 2007 to 2012 in Shaanxi Province to predict the total passenger and freight traffic in the Silk Road Economic Belt, and estimates increase in passenger and freight traffic caused by Silk Road Economic Belt.