Influence Relationship Of The Meteorological Disasters On Grain Output’s Fluctuation In Hebei Province

Grain is a major strategic issue which concerns the national economy and people’s livelihood very much, and it plays an irreplaceable basic role in maintaining people’s production life, as well as promoting economic development and stabilizing the social order. With the grain economy of our country suffers shortage and excess’s cycle fluctuating, the fluctuation of grain output has become one of the focus concern for the government and the public. As one of the most important commodity grain output base, the grain output of Hebei province has been consistently ranked the sixth in China since2010, which plays a very important role in the protection of their own food supply as well as the national food security, and it is one of the worst provinces that suffers the agro-meteorological disasters most as well. In consideration of the serious natural disaster risk about Hebei province, to explore the influence relationship that meteorological disaster impacts on grain production’s fluctuation and effectively reducing the dangers of agro-meteorological disasters is becoming increasingly important.This article mainly aims at studying the influencing relationship that meteorological disaster impacts on grain output’s fluctuation in Hebei province. Through the H-P filtering method, this article first divides the grain output’s fluctuation of Hebei province into different statistical cycle. And then start with the Long-term and Short-term fluctuations’ breakthrough point, respectively combines wave analysis with grey correlation analysis and econometric analysis, carries on a systematic analysis to explore the influencing relationship between meteorological disaster and grain output’s fluctuation in Hebei province.Based on the long-term fluctuations’perspective, by applying the grey correlation analysis on the relative fluctuation coefficients of grain output as well as Summer and autumn grain outputs in Hebei province, this article carries on a qualitative analysis. Then based on the short-term fluctuations’perspective, by building the VAR model on grain output’s volatility index and it’s relevant influencing factors’volatility index, in which meteorological disasters were included, this article carries on the quantitative analysis to explore the influence relationship between the meteorological disaster and grain yield fluctuation. Research results shows that the main meteorological disasters, such as drought, hail and flood disaster, has a significant impact on grain output’s long-term and short-term fluctuation in Hebei province. On the contrary, through accelerating improvement for food production, the sown area of grain, total power of agricultural machinery and agricultural labor force has an obvious negative impact to the grain output’s fluctuation. Therefore, according to the research results, this paper puts forward the stability of grain output’s fluctuation in Hebei province. Therefore, according to the research results, this paper puts forward the stability of grain output’s fluctuation in Hebei province.