Natural Disasters And Food Production In Jilin Province Of Grey Relation Analysis

China is a large agricultural country with a big population. As the saying goes,"Grainmeans sky for people”, food grain production is the fundamental source of grain, it is also themajor problem in the economic and political aspects for China as a high-risk, low-returnagricultural economic activity. Farmers always face the invasion of recurrent natural disasters,suffer the loss, lower purchasing price and higher agricultural costs, thus they don’t have somuch enthusiasm to fight natural calamities. In many places, food production fatalistic thinkingwas deeply rooted in the farmers head, in addition, frequency of natural disasters was uncertain,direct and indirect losses caused by is also difficult to estimate, they can only calculatesubjectively. Food is the most important material production sectors from ancient times,whose quality directly affects life quality, socio-economic level, even social stability. Afterindustrialization, the proportion of grain in the economic and society declined, the leadingindustries of national economic development is no longer a single component, but graduallydiversified and complicated. However, grain production is still the protection of the nationaleconomy, foundation of economic development and social stability. Grain security issue notonly has an impact on agricultural development, but also influences the overall situation of thenational economy."Production" is the fundamental problem of food grain production, if there isenough grain volume, there is no food shortage, to maintain stable grain production, it isnecessary to ensure stable food grain production.There are two factors in grain output, one is theyield, the other is sown area. The impact of natural disasters on food production is mainlyreflected on yield. Under normal circumstances, natural could assure healthy growth of grain,while natural disasters appear to break this pattern, resulting in various abnormal factors,thereby affecting the normal growth of crops. Those negative factors in the natural disasters, forexample: water change, dryness change, temperature change, etc. have seriously affected theamount of food. There are many ways to secure food production, financial subsidies,macro-control, market regulation are universal, which have little influence on yield. Even thereare many factors that influence yield, the most serious one is natural disasters. This articlefocuses on the impact of natural disasters on grain yield, takes Jilin Province as one example,analyze the natural disasters gray relation with the main crop, rice, corn, and soybeans, tounderstand different impact of different disasters, in order to take future protection measures andto ensure food security as much as possible from the grain yield aspect. In this paper, using gray correlation analysis, we collected the yield data of corn, rice andsoybean, as well as the ratio between the affected area and the disaster area of three maindisasters: drought, flood and hail from1990to2012in Jilin Province, and calculated the greycorrelation coefficient and degree between yield and disasters with following conclusions:First,from the perspective of the affected area, rice yield and hail affected area has the biggestcorrelation degree, while soybean and flood affected area has the least; Second, from theperspective of the disaster area, corn yield and hail disaster area has the biggest correlationdegree, while rice and drought disaster area has the least; Third, from the perspective of eachcrop variety, corn yield and hail disaster area has the biggest correlation degree, whosecorrelation degree with flood affected area is the least; Rice yield and hail disaster area has thebiggest correlation degree, whose correlation degree with drought disaster area is the least;Soybean yield and hail disaster area has the biggest correlation degree, whose correlation degreewith flood affected area is the least; Fourth, from the incidence of disaster area and affected areaon yield of crops, correlation degree of disaster area and corn or soybean yield is bigger thanthat of affected area and corn of soybean yield, while correlation degree of affected area and riceyield is bigger than that of disaster area and rice yield. Therefore, based on the comprehensiveresearch findings, combining the actual situation of grain production in Jilin Province,corresponding policy recommendations were provided in this article.