Research About The Adaptive Measures Of Soybean Production Under Climate Change In China: Based On Cross-scale Model Coupling

Soybean is an important oil crop in China. However, there is a quite severe imbalance between supply and demand in China, resulting in an increasing foreign-trade dependence. Climatic resources will be redistributed under Climate change, which will bring impact on the growth and development, cropping pattern, distribution and production of soybean. Therefore, how to estimate these impact and take effective measures to take advantage of redistributed climatic resources and evade the disadvantageous impact scientifically under climate change count for much to improve soybean self-sufficiency and grantee oil safety.The crop mechanism model DSSAT (decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) and the land potential model AEZ (Agricultural Ecology Zone) are two popular methods to estimate the impact of climate change. Fusion of the advantages between the two models is proved to be a more effective method. What we lack is to develop this method for soybean production.In this study, we firstly simulated soybean genetic parameters by DSSAT based on the observations from 1981 to 2011. Then improved and extended the cultivar parameters bank of AEZ based on the simulations of DSSAT and the observations. Finally, we established the China-AEZ model to assess accumulated temperature, evapotranspire, water deficit and soybean potential production and analyzed the potential adaptive techniques.The results showed that DSSAT expressed good performance in time and space scales in regard to simulating soybean parameters. The modified AEZ model has been improved a lot based on the simulations of DSSAT and the observations. Climate change will bring obvious impact on soybean production. The total potential production will decrease 1467 thousand tons, suitable planting area will increase 4700 thousand hectares and the average potential production will decrease 137kg/ha. The suitable cultivar and sowing date will change under climate change and irrigation can bring evident yield increase in arid and semi-arid regions, the most obvious area has an increase of 2000kg/ha.