The Effect Of Climate Change On The Main Crops And Damage Risk Assessment In Yanting

Under the background of climate change, the stability and sustainability of agriculture is a key concern of governments and the public, and also is the key to the sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the past 53 years’(1960-2012)data of Yanting which includes unit production of rice, corn, sweet potatoes, wheat, rape and the temperature, precipitation, sunshine time, the author used the climatic yield estimation method based on referenced period, and calculated the five major crops’ climatic production, trend production about climatic factors and crops’ climatic production and trend production, then analyzed crops’ change of climatic production; by climate effect model, calculating five kinds of main crops’ temperature affect, precipitation effect, sunshine effect and comprehensive effect; by calculating crops’ relative climatic production and judging from the distributed types of relative climatic production, calculating four damage risk index which includes the yield reduction of the calendar year, the coefficient variation of yield reduction, the high risk probability and comprehensive risk, finally based on the results,analysed the effect of climate change on the five kinds of main crop and damage risk assessment in Yanting. The following conclusions can be gotten through this paper:(1)In recent 53 years, the change of five major crops’ climatic production has the following characteristics: climate change has a positive effect on main crop of Yanting in the 1980 s and 1990s; it has a negative effect on main crop of Yanting in the 1960 s and 2000s; however, it has different effects on different crops in the 1970 s that it has a positive effect on corn and sweet potato and negative effect on rice, wheat and rape. The range of climatic production has increasing trend inter-decadal variations on crops which sown in spring including rice, corn and sweet potato and has decreasing trend inter-decadal variations on crops which sown in late spring including wheat and rape.(2)In recent 53 years, the effect of climate change on 5 kinds of main crops in Yanting has the following characteristics: in terms of the absolute temperature effect, sweet potatoes(|-16.18%|) > rice(|-7.05%|) > corn(|6.04%|) > rape(|2.49%|) > wheat(|1.89%|); in terms of the absolute precipitation effect, rape(|-22.00%|) > sweet potatoes(|-20.43%|) > rice(|9.06%|) > wheat(|-3.05%|) > corn(|-1.73%|); in terms of the absolute sunshine effect, rice(|13.63%|) > sweet potatoes(|-12.37%|) > wheat(|-5.27% |) > rape(|1.53%|) > corn(|0.08%|). The absolute comprehensive effect on crops: sweet potatoes(|-16.33%|) > rape(|-6.00%|) > rice(|5.22%|) > wheat(|-2.30%|) > corn(|1.46%|). The effect of climate change on crops is complex in decades, and the climate change has a positive effect on rice, and has a negative effect on corn, sweet potatoes, wheat and rape in the 1970s;the climate change has a positive effect on rice, corn, and has a negative effect on sweet potato, wheat and rape in the 1980s; the climate change has a positive effect on rice and wheat, and has a negative effect on corn, sweet potatoes and rape in the 1990s; the climate change has a positive effect on rice and corn and has a negative effect on sweet potato, wheat and rape in the 2000 s.(3)The yield reduction of the calendar year, the coefficient variation of yield reduction and the high risk probability of rice, corn, sweet potatoes, wheat and rape in Yanting are: rice(1.48%, 36.45%, 6.43%), corn(2.49%, 37.93%, 5.49%), sweet potatoes(5.12%, 37.29%, 5.88%), wheat(4.39%, 39.28%, 4.66%), rape(4.60%, 38.90%, 3.94%). In general, the comprehensive risk index of main crop in Yanting is: sweet potatoes(26.53%) > rice(20.59%) > corn(16.85%) > wheat(16.11%) > rape(15.76%). Among them, sweet potato belongs to light risk, rice, corn, wheat and rape belong to minor risk.Based on results of crop’s yield fluctuation and damage risk assessment in Yanting for the past 53 years, should adopt the following countermeasures in order to adapt to climate change and improve crop yields: pay attention to crops which sown in spring and adjust internal structure in time; Focusing on the irrigation and water conservancy, strengthen essential agricultural construction; should be appropriately increase rape’s planting area and cut wheat’s planting area; Strengthen the agricultural meteorological forecast, planting technological research and climate change adaptation to guide.