The Comparative Study Of Climate Change And Crop Climatic Suitability-degree About Chengdu Plain And The Central Hilly Of Sichuan

Agriculture is one of the most sensitive areas affected by climate change. This paper uses the methods of literature, field survey and data collection, statistics, model estimation, regional comparative analysis to conduct a contrast research in Pujiang county and Yanting county of sichuan province about nearly 30 years(1983 ~ 2012) to the crop production, climate change and the five main crops(wheat, canola, rice, corn and sweet potato)during the growth period of climate change, and the change of crop climatic suitability, the correlation between climate change and crop climatic suitability, the correlation between crop climatic suitability and sown area, to discuss small scale regional agricultural production by the impact of climate change. Through the research of this paper, we can draw the following conclusions:(1) In nearly 30 years(1983~2012), Pujiang county and Yanting county arable land are declining, multiple cropping index increasing, both to food crops as the main planting, the five main crops yields have increased. Pujiang County main in paddy field and Yanting County main in dry land also determine the two counties respectively in rice and wheat as the main food crops.(2) In nearly 30 years(1983~2012), Pujiang county and Yanting county formed a warming climate trend obviously and it’s increasing obviously during the five crops growth period too. The sunshine percentage of Pujiang county is lower than that of Yanting County, and the fluctuation of two counties is large, the sunshine percentage during five main crops growth period of Pujiang county is generally lower than that of Yanting. Pujiang county annual precipitation was significantly higher than that of Yanting County, the annual precipitation and the precipitation during five main crops growth period in two counties fails to form a climate trend. The annual evaporation and the evaporation during five main crops growth period of Pujiang County was lower than that of Yanting County, but it’s transpiration rate increased significantly.(3) In the past 30 years(1983~2012), the light, heat, water average value of membership function about crops sown in spring is higher than the crops sown in late spring of Pujiang county and Yanting county, the fluctuation amplitude is: USW(p) > UST(t) > USR(h). Pujiang county and Yanting county the value and the fluctuation of the resourcec suitable index(Isr),climate performance suitable index(Ise) about crops sown in spring is bigger than the crops sown in late spring,two countries climate resource utilization index(K) is low, Yanting county five main crops fluctuation amplitude of climate resourcec suitable index(Isr),climate performance suitable index(Ise),climate resource utilization index(K) is bigger than Pujiang county.(4) In the past 30 years, the temperature change during five main crops growth period have little influence on the climate suitability in Pujiang county and Yanting County, the correlation between precipitation, evaporation fluctuation and climate suitability change is obvious. At the same time, five main crops sunshine percentage changes during the growth period has a significant impact on the change of climate suitability in Pujiang county, while Yanting county has almost no influence overall, there was no significant correlation between the crop climatic suitability and planting area of two counties and it shows that the behavior of the farmers adapt to climate change is a certain blindness, which needs to be further explored, and to strengthen the guidance of climate prediction and adaptation to climate change.