Study Of Risk Assessment Of Infectious Diseases After Floods: Based On The Risk Matrix And AHP Methods

Objective To define of risk of flood-related infectious diseases and give the concept of risk assessment of infectious diseases, by summarizing of domestic and international researches on flood disaster risk and with the help of risk assessment related theories. To establish a risk-assessment model of flood-related infectious diseases, which based on two dimensionalities of possibility and severity of infectious diseases burst after floods, which is expected to improve the scientificity and accuracy of the prevention and control of risk of flood-related infectious diseases for health emergency agencies.Methods In our study, a retrospective research on domestic and international literatures, together with expert consultation and matrix analysis, has been done in order to build the early warning index system of possibility of infectious disease, and the early warning index system of severity of infectious disease after floods. Analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was used to calculate the weight of each index. Moreover, the risk-analysis matrix was applied to figure out the integrated risk value of flood-related infectious diseases, which made the risk-assessment model of flood-related infectious diseases well established, and then the risk-assessment model were derived through simulation.Results We gave our identifications for such concepts as the risk of flood-related infectious diseases and risk assessment of the infectious diseases. We explored the risk-assessment process of flood-related infectious diseases. In the early warning index system of possibility of infectious disease, primary index has four factors: source of infection, route of transmission, vulnerability and emergency ability. Secondary indicators have 26 factors, such as incidence of measles, rubella, influenza and other respiratory infectious disease, the condition of water supply, damage of medical and health institutions, constructions of health emergency team, and so on. In the early warning index system of severity of infectious disease after floods, the index layer was constituted by six factors. The results of simulation experiments of risk assessment model in ―S‖ county of Chongqing showed R was 3.259, meaning that there was lower risk of flood-related infectious diseases. Local health agency carried out the risk management of flood--related infectious diseases in accordance with the conventional procedures.Conclusions We built a comparatively scientific risk-assessment model of flood-related infectious diseases by using the information synthesis integration method in this study, which was a combination of the risk matrix and analytic hierarchy process. This model will henceforth provide scientific basis for flood control health programmes as well as reasonably allocating flood control and disaster mitigation force.