The Influence Of Cognitive Resource Constraints On The Size Of Hindsight Bias

When people treat the result of an event afterwards, they will overrate their ability to predict due to memory distortion or the perception of the inevitability of what happened, which is called Hindsight Bias. Since Hindsight Bias can easily bring about decision makers’ over confidence, as well as lack of foresight, which will be harmful to the process of decision-making, researchers gradually shift their topics from mechanisms on the formation of Hindsight Bias to which issues influence them in recent years, in order to seek out effective ways to cope with Hindsight Bias. Previous studies indicated that methods, age, personal traits, ability, feedback value, selfcorrelation, emotion and professional knowledge etc. have an impact on Hindsight bias, yet the conclusions are not integrated. Secondly, besides the feedback value and self correlation are based on the motivation of Hindsight Bias, the most influence factors are not derived from the theory model.Given this, the article, based on memory design, proceeding from the cognitive model of hindsight bias, infers that cognitive resources may affect the size of Hindsight Bias. By three studies, we hope to explore the effect of cognitive resources on Hindsight Bias. Study 1 is an exploratory research, aimed at exploring whether the RT of hindsight judgment is related to the size of Hindsight Bias. In another word, whether the RT of hindsight judgment is the potential influence factors, which can provide reference for study 2. On account of study 1, by manipulating the RT of hindsight judgment to control participants’ cognitive resource allocation indirectly, study 2 investigates the impact of cognitive resource constraints on the size of Hindsight Bias. While study 3, through directly give the cognitive load to take up participants’ cognitive resources, explores the impact of cognitive resource constraints on the size of Hindsight Bias.The main conclusion of the current study can be summarized that cognitive resources constraints will increase the size of Hindsight Bias. The results are as follows:Firstly, during the hindsight judgment, the time spent to recall the foresight judgment is significantly negative correlated to the size of Hindsight Bias.Secondly, through manipulating the RT of hindsight judgment to control participants’ cognitive resource allocation indirectly, rapidly recalling will enlarge Hindsight Bias, compared to the control group.Thirdly, by setting with/without the cognitive load taking up participants’ cognitive resources directly, compared to the control group, cognitive load will increase Hindsight Bias.