The Impact Of Critical Thinking Ability And Information Causality On Conjunction Fallacy

As for the relation between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index and the development of China’s economy, it is widely believed that the rising of stock index represents better economic development and the falling represents worse one. Based on the errors of above inference, the stock market disaster appears, bringing painful lessons as well as some enlightenment.Many studies in the field of decision focused on the deviation caused in the probability extrapolation. Some deviations that violate some basic and simple principles of probability theory caused much more concern,one of which is conjunction fallacy. Domestic scholars paid much attention to the cause and interpretation model of conjunction fallacy before. In recent years, they concerned more about its influencing factors.Considering that the study on the influencing factors is practical, this thesis will research deeper based on the previous ones.This research designed two tests to inspect the effect critical thinking ability and information causality on the conjunction fallacy. The first one discussed the effect of different information causalities and critical thinking ability among conjunction events on the conjunction fallacy. The second one was to discuss the effect of different information causalities and critical thinking ability between resources and conjunction events on the conjunction fallacy. Two tests were all designed to inspect the effect to the conjunction fallacy after adjusting the metacognition through retest after adjusting tested metacognition.Results showed that:(1)The differences of information causalities among conjunction events had a significant impact on the conjunction fallacy. When conjunction events had information causalities, the tested conjunction fallacy had a high frequency.(2)The differences between the resources and information ausalities of conjunction events had a significant impact on the conjunction fallacy.When resources and conjunction events had information causalities, the tested conjunction fallacy had a high frequency.(3)The ability of the critical thinking had a significant effect on the creation of conjunction fallacy. Ones with the stronger ability of the critical thinking had lower probability of conjunction fallacy than ones with weaker ability.(4)Both the critical thinking and information causalities have interaction effect on conjunction fallacy.