The Role Of China In Solving The North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Ever since the first North Korean Nuclear Crisis (NKNC) happened, the SouthKorean security experts have held different views on the role of China played in theresolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. Most South Korean security expertsthought that China had not played any role during the first NKNC and only taken anegative attitude. However, after the second NKNC, China showed a positive attitude.Consequently, South Korean experts changed their views on the role that China playedin the North Korean nuclear issue and different opinion showed up among experts.During the period between the second NKNC and the second North Korean nuclear test,there were four kinds of perspectives among the South Korean experts, i.e., because ofthe policy change of China, it will play a positive role on the resolution of the NorthKorean nuclear issue; although China has the willing of playing a positive role in theresolution of North Korean nuclear issue, its limited impact on North Korea restricts itsimpact; although it does have some impact on North Korea, considering the interest ofthe country, it only implements its influence optionally in the relationship with NorthKorea. Compared with the resolution of North Korean nuclear issue, China pays moreattention to the expansion of its impact. During this period, Kim Dae-Jung and RohMoo-hyun’s government adopted the tolerance policy on North Korea and expectedChina to make some effort to resolve the issue, which makes the optimistic perspectivedominate the public opinion. However, after seeing that the six-party talks didn’t getany significant achievement, some experts began to doubt that China held a negativeattitude on resolving the North Korea nuclear issue and these arguments gradually heldthe upper hand.After the second North Korean nuclear test, the perspectives from South Koreansecurity experts can be divided into three groups: China will continue to expand itsimpact on North Korea and guide North Korea to conduct the reform and opening-up,which has a great power on resolving the North Korean nuclear issue peacefully;although China has some impact on North Korea, it executes its impact only if it is in itsown interest; China will allow North Korea to possess nuclear weapons. During thisperiod, Lee Myung-bak’s government came into power. One can say that the policy ofLee Myung-bak’s government toward North Korea and the pessimistic attitude of China on resolving the North Korea nuclear issue have influenced the policy of South Koreangovernment to a great extent.On each stage, the main opinion from South Korean security experts is almostconsistent with the tone of policy from South Korean government toward North Korea.This is because the three stages divided in this paper are almost the same as the timewhen power shifts happened in the government. Most institutes have close relationshipswith the government and thus government will be more likely to recommend thosesecurity experts who have the same concepts as that reflected from the policy of thegovernment and who have more influence. If we take the experience of security expertsinto account, one may find that South Korean security experts who have optimisticviews on the role of China share the following common points: first, they advocate toadopt tolerant policy or sun policy toward North Korea; second, they have theexperience of working in the institutes of national policy during the administration ofKim Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-hyun’s government; third, experts who had the experienceof studying in China usually hold more optimistic views on the role of China played inthe resolution of North Korean nuclear issue; fourth, these researchers usually have aprogressive tendency. However, among those experts who hold a negative perspectiveon the role of China, most of them worked as researcher in the national policy researchinstitutes for Kim Young-sam and Lee Myung-bak’s government or as committeemembers of the transfer committee for Lee Myung-bak’s government. In policy terms,they all support that North Korea gives up nuclear weapon first and the principle ofreciprocal altruism. Furthermore, among security experts who hold pessimistic views,most of them have the experience of studying in U.S. or Taiwan and tend toconservatism.