North Korean Nuclear Crisis:Russia's Involvement And Role

This dissertation analyzes a complex issue of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis,its past,present and prospects for the future.Special attention is paid to the current and potential role of Russia as one of the major stakeholders in the situation surrounding the crisis.Interests of all states involved are analyzed,roots and causes of the crisis are researched,scenarios of the future development of the events on the Korean Peninsula are formed and are evaluated from the the viewpoint of Russian national interests.The thesis consists of three chapters.Chapter 1 is devoted to shaping the historical and causative context of the North Korean nuclear crisis.It attempts to provide the reader a comprehensive background of the topic and to thoroughly explain the North Korean missile crisis: its origins,North Korean leadership's motivations,multilateral attempts to the negotiation process and recent developments and events linked to the crisis.A new original periodization of the crisis development based on the use of milestone events related to it as starting and ending points of corresponding stages is proposed in this chapter.This helped to notice a clear cyclic model of development: the emergence of major nuclear crises every 10-12 years,ending in a series of concessions,made by the international community in order to pacify the DPRK.It is also worth noting that with each new North Korean nuclear missile crisis,the number of parties to the negotiations,an active member of which Russia has long become,increases.A conclusion is reached that the emergence of the North Korean nuclear program was determined by considerations of national security and by fear that the US might use nuclear weapons against the DPRK,while the development of its own nuclear arsenal was seen by the North Korean leadership as the only reliable guarantee of non-interference of the US armed forces and regime survival in general.Over the course of decades,this motivation never lost its relevance,neither did the North Korean authorities cease to use their nuclear program as a bargaining chip,aggravating the tensions in the region and seeking political and economic dividends in the follow-up period of rapprochement.Chapter 2 analyzes and carefully evaluates Moscow's stance,strategy and interests in the North Korean crisis and Russian foreign policy towards North Korea,beginning with a brief historical overview of the recent Russia-North Korea relations.It also closely studies current Russian initiatives to solve the crisis and to ease the tensions.Russia's position vis-à-vis North Korea is found as being far from unambiguous due to its contradictory nature.On the one hand,Russia is not interested in escalating violence in close proximity to its own border,and therefore bringing the crisis to a full-scale war appears to be its least desirable option due to the inevitable emergence of a major humanitarian problem.On the other hand,realizing that only the overthrow of the current political regime is capable of forcing the DPRK to abandon nuclear weapons,Russia does not welcome it either.Russia is interested in the existence of a stable North Korea,which would not threaten the lives of its citizens and would be able to participate in promising regional economic projects,including those in the energy sector.This outcome satisfies Russia's national interests the most,and therefore Russia is making efforts to pacify all the participants in the crisis and to return to negotiations in a six-party format on the conditions of a ?double freeze? initiative-the termination of the North Korean tests of nuclear devices and missiles and the abolition of joint US military exercises and Republic of Korea off the coast of the DPRK.For Russia,participation in the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis is largely a question of international prestige,a demonstration of its importance in international and regional politics,as the DPRK does not directly threaten it security with missiles and considers it to be its partner.For this reason,Russia's stance in the crisis can be characterized as a more patient pragmatic approach,under the framework of which Moscow regularly calls on all sides of the conflict to return at the negotiating table in order to reach a mutually acceptable agreement,leaving pre-conditions for the start of negotiations behind.Chapter 3 is is divided into two sections.First section is dedicated to thoroughly outlining the interests of all the major stakeholders(the DPRK,the US,Republic of Korea,Japan,China and Russia),complemented by an evaluation of how these interests affect or may affect Russia's stance towards this issue in the future.It also includes an attempt to determine and to define the intersections and clashes of interests of all of the crisis' stakeholders.Second section of this chapter is devoted to predictive scenarios of the further development of the North Korean crisis based on the existing prominent trends as well as on the emerging ones.The formulated predictive scenarios are the evaluated through the prism of Russia's national interests.A following conclusion is reached: the interests of North Korea,the United States,the Republic of Korea,Japan,China and Russia all coincide in their shared desire to ensure a high level of security in the Northeast Asia region.The differences lie in the vision of exactly how this security should be ensured.From the viewpoint of the North Korean leadership,only the possession of nuclear weapons can guarantee the survival and safety of its regime,while helping the DPRK to achieve sustainable balance of power with the United States.The remaining five stakeholders do not share this opinion,as they insist on the nuclear-free status of the Korean peninsula.Yet they fail to provide the North Korean authorities with such guarantees that would be sufficient enough for them to stop the development of the nuclear missile program.This discord leads to frequent nuclear crises,posing severe threats to the regional and global security.Russia is interested in the implementation of the “Negotiated Deal” scenario and supports all diplomatic initiatives related to the resumption of the negotiation process on the North Korean nuclear issue,promoting the return to the format of Six-Party Talks.However,it could be satisfied with the current status-quo as well and would prefer a “Permanent Crisis” scenario over any other one that would involve a military intervention.However,the military build-up that accompanies this scenario creates considerable concerns in the Kremlin.